By Es Ufuoma
At the Federal Executive Council meeting in Abuja earlier this year, heads nodded solemnly as the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Sen. Heineken Lokpobiri, declared Nigeria’s bold ambition: to raise oil production to 2.06 million barrels per day by 2025.
It was a statement of intent, one that sparked both hope and scepticism across boardrooms, oilfields, and street corners. For some, it was a long-overdue move to reclaim Nigeria’s place as Africa’s energy giant. For others, it sounded like “déjà vu”, another lofty promise battling against the gritty reality of theft, corruption, underinvestment, and broken infrastructure.
“We’ve heard targets before,” says Efemena James, a pipeline technician in Warri. “But out here, the story is different. You can’t pump oil when you’re patching holes every week or when vandals come at night like ghosts.”
A Nation with Black Gold, But Heavy Luggage
Nigeria has always had oil. What it hasn’t always had is stability in producing it. After years of sabotage, divestments, and regulatory bottlenecks, oil production in early 2025 hovers around 1.75 million barrels per day, including condensates. It’s progress, yes, but still far from the ambitious 2.06 million bpd target.
Dr. Bala Zakka, an energy analyst, explains: “Ramping up production is not just about pumping more crude, it’s about securing pipelines, attracting investment, and fixing governance. You can’t achieve any of these in silos.
Over the past year, the Nigerian government has launched Operation Delta Sanity, an aggressive campaign aimed at stamping out oil theft and illegal refining. Surveillance drones now scan creeks. The military has increased its footprint. But the problem is systemic.
Meanwhile, global oil giants like Shell and ExxonMobil have slowly scaled back their operations, citing unstable conditions. This exodus has left indigenous oil companies holding the fort with limited capital and massive expectations.
To reach 2.06 million bpd, Nigeria would need an estimated $7.6 billion in new investments by 2025, mostly to drill new wells, refurbish old fields, and modernise infrastructure. Indigenous companies like Seplat Energy have pledged to invest up to $320 million this year, but experts warn that more needs to be done and fast.
The Niger Delta’s environmental scars remain raw. Any discussion of production increases raises concerns about further ecological damage unless there is genuine investment in remediation, job creation, and local development.
So, the big question is: Can Nigeria hit the target? Technically, yes. The reserves are there. The people are skilled. The global oil demand is still strong. But ambition alone won’t move the needle.
Without improved security, stronger institutions, real collaboration with host communities, and foreign capital inflow, the 2.06 million bpd target may remain a political soundbite, an echo of unfulfilled promises.
“We’ve got the oil,” says Kehinde Afolayan, an upstream engineer based in Lagos. “What we don’t always have is the willpower to manage it properly. But if we do this right, just maybe we can surprise the world, and ourselves.”
Nigeria’s oil dream is not dead. It is tired, bruised, but still alive. The 2.06 million barrels per day goal may yet be a turning point or another missed opportunity.
In the end, it’s not just about hitting a number. It’s about restoring faith in governance, in the economy, and in the communities where oil is both a blessing and a curse.