By William Emmanuel Ukpoju
As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu marks two years in office on May 29, 2025, it’s time to reflect on the mix of achievements and challenges in his administration’s efforts to reform the sector, considering its importance to the Nigerian economy.
President Tinubu inherited some far-reaching reforms and improvements in the sector started by former President Muhammadu Buhari including the passage and signing into law of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB), declaration of the “Decade of Gas” initiative with the commencement of construction of the 614km Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano Gas Project, securing of about $45million in financing from the Islamic Development Bank for the Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) Study for the Nigeria– Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP) project, the successful completion of Nigeria’s first Marginal Field Bid Round in almost 20 years, the financial close and signing of contract for NLNG Train 7, among numerous others.
However, some challenges plagued the Buhari administration, leaving expectations by Nigerians largely unmet. Among the complex and multipronged challenges that confronted the country’s energy sector were low power generation, waning investments in the oil and gas industry, dipping oil production, insecurity of assets, lengthy contract cycle and general administrative complexities.
Unmet targets in the energy sector confronted the Tinubu administration. When he took office, Tinubu was expected to take one of the most difficult political and economic decisions: keep or remove the subsidy, and he did so immediately. In his inaugural address as President, Tinubu announced that his administration would not continue to pay subsidy on petroleum products. This was also followed by a number of reforms in the power sector, which equally led to the removal of subsidies on electricity customers under Band A.
These decisions proved to be extremely devastating for Nigerians as the exponential increase in the prices of fuel and electricity further aggravated the tough situation, leaving many Nigerians helpless as all sources of energy became prohibitively expensive.
To mitigate the impact of these tough policies on the populace, the president embarked on some projects and reforms. One of the most significant moves by the administration is the push towards an energy transition, spearheaded by the Presidential Compressed Natural Gas Initiative (PCNGi), which started promoting the use of gas as a cheaper alternative fuel.
Executive Orders to attract investment
In keeping with efforts to remove obstacles to investments, harness the nation’s resources and diversify the economy, in March 2024, President Tinubu signed three executive orders aimed at improving the investment climate in the oil and gas sector. These directives introduced fiscal incentives for non-associated gas, midstream, and deepwater projects, streamlined the contracting process to six months, and emphasised local content requirements without hindering investment.
Successes from these reforms are said to have started yielding fruits as the government recently announced that the country attracted over 8 billion dollars (about N12.8 trillion) investments in deepwater projects and gas Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) in one year. These policy reforms in the upstream sector have been cited as the reason for the resurgence in investor confidence in Africa’s largest energy market. Just recently, Brazil’s state oil company, Petrobras, announced it was seeking to re-enter Nigeria’s oil sector, after over a decade since the company exited the Nigerian market. Beyond Petrobras, several national and international oil and gas companies are showing renewed interest in Nigeria’s energy sector, particularly in offshore and gas projects.
The investment landscape in Nigeria’s energy sector under the current leadership is reportedly brimming with opportunities, driven by the favourable regulatory environment and strategic initiatives aimed at attracting investors into the national economy.
Some other key achievements that positioned Nigeria as a global energy powerhouse include the selection of Nigeria as a host country for the headquarters of the Africa Energy Bank (AEB). The establishment of the AEB and having its headquarters situated in Abuja was one of the major achievements of Tinubu’s administration. This milestone underscored the administration’s dedication to energy security, economic growth, regional cooperation, ensuring a brighter and more prosperous future for all Nigerians and Africans.
Increased oil production
In the oil sector, the primary policy thrust of the government remains to increase production. Upon assuming office, Nigeria’s oil production was approximately 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd). By mid-2024, this figure had risen to about 1.7 million bpd, including condensates. As of date, Nigeria has progressed to producing 1.8 million barrels of crude oil per day as against the 1 million barrels produced in the previous years. This growth is attributed to the activation of dormant oil assets and enhanced security measures in the Niger Delta region. The International Oil companies (IOCs), according to the government, are not leaving Nigeria, instead, they are moving into deep offshore, contrary to the wrong impression that was created.
Milestone in power generation
Recognising the importance of a stable power supply for economic growth, President Tinubu signed the 2023 Electricity Bill into law, aiming to reform the electricity sector and promote competition. Some of the key provisions of the Act include: States having the authority to license electricity operations, the establishment of an Independent Systems Operator (ISO) for market functions and promoting the use of renewable energy, among others. The Act not only facilitates private sector investment in Nigeria’s electricity sector but also establishes a stable regulatory framework, reinforcing investor rights.
One of the major focuses of the power sector under the president Tinubu-led administration has been to improve power generation with plans to achieve at least 8,000 megawatts before the end of Tinubu’s first term in office in 2027, and according to the government, progress has continuously been made in this direction. Recently, the government announced that Nigeria reached a remarkable generation available capacity of 6,003 megawatts on the 2nd of March 2025, marking the first time this level had been recorded in the country’s history.
Adebayo Adelabu, Minister of Power, during a ministerial press briefing in Abuja in April, said the achievement was followed by a peak generation evacuation of 5,801.44 megawatts on the 4th of March 2025, which also saw an impressive daily energy output, the highest ever.
“The average daily power generated and distributed in the past quarter of 2025 was 5,700 megawatts. Compared with what we met when we resumed office, an average of 4,100 megawatts was achieved in the third quarter of 2023. This indicates a growth of 1,600 megawatts, nearly 40 per cent growth since we assumed office at the ministry, the minister said.
He explained that while it took the country about 40 years to achieve 4,000 megawatts of power generation, this administration, in one and a half years, has achieved a peak generation of 5,800 megawatts, that is 1,700MW megawatts in one and a half years.
Energy projects, infrastructure development
In the last two years under Tinubu’s leadership, fulfillment of the “Decade of Gas” plan remained a central plank of government policy and this has manifested in Nigeria LNG’s Train 7 project which reportedly hit 67 per cent completion in June 2024, the project once completed, promises to increase LNG production capacity by 35 per cent.
The Dangote refinery, which was officially commissioned in May 2023 after years of construction delays, has continued to receive maximum support from the government, particularly through the constant crude supply from the NNPC Ltd and having the supply paid for in naira instead of the US dollar. To ensure that the local refineries are very competitive thereby lowering the cost of retail price of Petroleum products for the populace, the administration introduced the sale of crude oil in Naira to enhance the operational efficiency of local refineries by reducing foreign exchange risks and transaction costs, as well foster a stronger and more stable domestic market.
Nigeria’s first floating liquefied natural gas project is being developed by the Nigerian company UTM Offshore. The project is projected to come on-stream by Q1 2026 and is reportedly backed by a $5 billion loan signed with Afreximbank, which has become a dominant source of capital to Nigerian energy companies (including NNPC).
Many big projects are anticipated to hit major milestones under the Tinubu government. In terms of gas development, NNPC Ltd expects to complete the $2.8 billion Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano (AKK) gas pipeline project soon, as the project has reached 72% completion rate. The AKK project is the first phase of the 1,300km Trans-Nigerian Gas Pipeline and a key element of Nigeria’s plan to develop its gas resources. President Tinubu commissioned key gas infrastructure projects, including the ANOH Gas Processing Plant and the OB3 gas pipeline in Imo and Delta States in 2024. These initiatives are part of the government’s strategy to leverage natural gas for economic growth and energy security. The ANOH project aims to improve the availability of natural gas for power generation whilst accelerating Nigeria’s transition towards cleaner fuels. Also, the construction of the mega Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline is scheduled to start this year.
Challenges persist
Despite the perceived achievements in the last two years, the energy sector under President Tinubu’s administration continues to face a myriad of issues that demand immediate attention and decisive action.
Despite efforts to combat oil theft and pipeline vandalism, escalating levels of oil theft and the consequential fluctuation in oil production continue to impact the administration negatively. For instance, the Trans Niger Pipeline experienced multiple ruptures in 2025, leading to significant oil spills and production disruptions. These incidents underscore the ongoing challenges in securing oil infrastructure.
Nigeria’s persistent power crisis remains a significant impediment to economic growth and development. Despite efforts to improve the power sector, inadequate generation, transmission, and distribution infrastructure continue to hinder productivity and investment.