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OPEC leaves forecast for 2024 oil-demand growth unchanged at 2.2mbpd

Global oil demand will grow by 2.2 million barrels per day, in 2024, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries forecast in its monthly report Wednesday, unchanged from its previous projection. Growth in 2025 is seen at 1.8 mbpd.

Total world oil demand is anticipated to reach 104.4 mbpd in 2024, OPEC said, boosted by strong air-travel demand and “healthy road mobility,” including on-road diesel and trucking, as well as healthy industrial, construction and agricultural activities in countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a club for wealthy, industrialized nations.

“Capacity additions and petrochemical margins in non-OECD countries – mostly in China and the Middle East – are expected to contribute to oil-demand growth,” OPEC said.

On the supply side, non-OPEC liquids production in 2024 is forecast to grow by 1.3 mbpd to average 70.4 mbpd, including 50,000 barrels a day in processing gains, OPEC said.

The U.S., Canada, Guyana, Brazil, Norway and Kazakhstan are expected to be the main drivers.

In addition to the U.S. shale basins which account for about 49% of expected non-OPEC liquids supply growth, offshore projects – mainly in Latin America – are expected to substantially support growth this year, OPEC said, while production is forecast to see the largest decline in Mexico and Angola.