By Fred Ojiegbe
There are indications that Nigeria’s oil production suffered a decline as its rig count dipped by one, having posted five in June, as against six posted in May.
This was coming at a time the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)’s rig count declined by six, as it posted 354 in June as against 360 posted in May, latest data from OPEC showed.
World rig count, however, witnessed a surge by 63, as it recorded 1,433 in June, as against 1,370 recorded in May.
Among the 13 OPEC members, three countries recorded plus in their rig count.
They were led by Iraq which had plus three, having recorded 38 in June, as against 35 recorded the previous month.
It was followed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which had a rig count of 45 in June, as against 43 recorded the previous month.
Gabon completed the gainers’ group, with its plus one, as it recorded two in June, as against one recorded the previous month.
Four OPEC members were in the losers’ loop. Saudi Arabia, led the group, with its minus seven, as it had a rig count of 59 in June, as against 66 recorded the previous month.
This was followed by Algeria which had minus three, having recorded 25 in June, as against 28 recorded the previous month.
Kuwait had minus one, as it had 22 in June, as against 23 posted in May. Six OPEC members had their rig count unchanged within the period under review. Angola, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Iran, Libya and Venezuela recorded 4, 0, 0, 117, 12 and 25, respectively. The United States of America recorded plus 10, as it had 464 in June, as against 454 recorded in May.
Canada had an impressive leap in its rig count with a record of 45, as it posted 104 in June, as against 59 posted in May. Mexico had plus five, as it recorded 45 in June, as against 40 recorded the previous month. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Americas also posted an impressive leap in its rig count with a record of 60, as it had 614 in June, as against 554 posted the previous month.
Norway also made the gainers’ group with its plus two, having posted 20 in June, as against 18 posted the previous month.
OECD Europe also made the group of gainers with its plus four, having recorded 62 in June, as against 58 recorded in May.
World oil supply
OPEC data indicated that global liquids production in June increased by 1.10 million barrels per day (mbpd) to average 94.49 mbpd, compared with the previous month.
Non-OPEC liquids production, including OPEC natural gas liquids (NGLs) increased in June by 0.52 mbpd compared with the previous month to average 68.46 mbpd, higher by 2.76 mbpd year-on-year (y-o-y).
Preliminary increases in production over June were mainly driven by the OECD, which saw 0.46 mbpd month-on-month (m-o-m) more production compared with an increase of only 0.08 mbpd in non-OECD countries, including participants in the DoC, as production had already been adjusted in May.
The share of OPEC crude oil in total global production decreased by 0.3 pp to 27.6 per cent in June compared with the previous month.
Estimates are based on preliminary data from direct communication for non-OPEC supply, OPEC non gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional oil, while estimates for OPEC crude production are based on secondary sources.
Non-OPEC liquids production in 2022 is expected to grow by 2.1 mbpd to average 65.85 mbpd, including a recovery of 0.11 mbpd in processing gains. The supply forecast, including expected growth of OPEC NGLs, should be at 2.2 mbpd.
Liquids supply in the OECD countries is expected to increase next year by 1.1 mbpd, and growth of 0.8 mbpd in the non-OECD region is anticipated.
The main drivers for liquids supply growth are expected to be the US (0.74 mbpd), Russia, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Guyana and Kazakhstan, whereby the majority of the increase in the US and some other countries represents a production recovery from the 2020 oil market downturn due to curtailments, rather than growth from new projects.
Nevertheless, uncertainty regarding the financial and operational aspects of US production remains high.
OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production in 2021 is estimated to grow by 0.12 mbpd to average 5.17 mbpd.
For 2022, it is likely to grow by 0.13 mbpd to average 5.29 mbpd.
OPEC-13 crude oil production in June increased by 0.59 mbpd m-o-m to average 26.03 mbpd, according to secondary sources.
Preliminary non-OPEC liquids production in June, including OPEC NGLs, is estimated to have increased by 0.52 mbpd m-o-m to average 68.46 mbpd, up by 2.76 mbpd y-o-y.
As a result, preliminary data indicates that global oil supply increased by 1.10 mbpd m-o-m to average 94.49 mbpd, down by 6.53 mbpd y-o-y.