By Gideon Osaka
Nigeria’s local content journey has entered its most decisive phase. From a modest 26% at inception to 61% by late 2025, the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) has quietly reshaped the structure of the oil and gas industry, building indigenous capacity, enforcing compliance, and turning policy into industrial execution. Now, with a bold 70% target set for 2027, the final stretch may prove the hardest yet.
In this cover story, The Valuechain Energy Magazine examines the NCDMB’s 10-Year Strategic Roadmap, unpacking the five pillars driving Nigeria’s local content transformation, from technical capability and enforcement to investment climate reform and cross-sector industrial linkages. More importantly, it interrogates the risks, bottlenecks, and unresolved questions behind the numbers.
Is Nigeria on the brink of locking in irreversible industrial capacity, or approaching the limits of policy-driven localisation? As global capital tightens and the energy transition accelerates, the answer will shape the future of Nigeria’s energy value chain.
From Policy Ideal to Industrial Imperative
When Nigeria enacted the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Content Development (NOGICD) Act in 2010, local content was still treated as an aspiration, noble, politically attractive, but structurally weak. The oil and gas industry remained dominated by foreign engineering firms, offshore procurement, imported skills, and capital flight disguised as technical necessity. Nigerian participation existed largely at the margins, confined to low-value services and subcontracting layers that delivered employment but little industrial depth.
Fifteen years later, the conversation has changed.
By late 2025, Nigeria’s local content level in the oil and gas industry had climbed to 61 per cent, a dramatic leap from the 26 per cent baseline recorded when the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) commenced its long-term roadmap. The target now is explicit and politically charged: 70 per cent Nigerian content by 2027.
This is no longer about policy compliance. It is about whether Nigeria can permanently rewire the structure of its most important industrial sector, and whether the institutions built to drive that transformation are strong enough to complete the journey.
At the centre of this experiment sits the NCDMB, an agency that has evolved from a regulatory enforcer into something far more consequential: a quasi-industrial development institution shaping capital flows, supply chains, skills formation, and sectoral linkages across the energy economy.
But as the Board enters the final stretch of its 10-Year Strategic Roadmap, the remaining gap, the last nine per cent, may prove the most difficult terrain yet.
Why 70 Per cent Matters More Than the Number
The fixation on percentages can obscure what is really at stake. Seventy per cent local content is not merely a statistical milestone; it marks a threshold of irreversibility.
Below that threshold, Nigerian participation can still be reversed by capital flight, project downturns, or policy shifts. Above it, local firms, skills, and assets become so embedded in the value chain that foreign dominance becomes structurally impractical. In effect, 70 per cent is the point at which local content stops being a policy goal and becomes an industrial fact.
For Nigeria, this matters for three reasons.
First, oil and gas remain the country’s most capital-intensive sector, accounting for a disproportionate share of foreign exchange inflows, fiscal revenues, and infrastructure investment. If Nigerian firms cannot dominate value creation here, it is difficult to imagine them doing so anywhere else.
Second, as global capital becomes more selective amid energy transition pressures, Nigeria cannot afford a system where investment dollars immediately exit the economy through imported services, expatriate wages, and offshore procurement.
Third, the oil and gas sector increasingly serves as a training ground for cross-sector industrial capacity, supplying skills, technologies, and capital structures that spill into power, construction, manufacturing, and infrastructure.
In this context, the NCDMB’s ambition is not parochial. It is foundational.
The Roadmap That Reframed Nigerian Content
The turning point for Nigerian content was not the NOGICD Act itself, but the decision by the NCDMB to operationalise the law through a 10-Year Strategic Roadmap built around measurable targets, sector-specific interventions, and institutional reform.
Rather than treating local content as a compliance checklist, the Roadmap reframed it as an industrial development strategy anchored on five pillars:
*Technical Capability Development
*Compliance and Enforcement
*Enabling Business Environment
*Organisational Capability
*Sectorial and Regional Market Linkages
Together, these pillars sought to address the central weakness of earlier localisation efforts: the assumption that Nigerian participation would grow organically if foreign firms were compelled to “use locals.”
Instead, the Roadmap recognised that capacity must precede compliance, and that markets, not mandates alone, ultimately sustain localisation.
Pillar One: Technical Capability Development; Building the Supply Chain Nigeria Never Had
At the heart of Nigerian content lies a deceptively simple question: Can Nigerian companies deliver complex oil and gas projects at scale, on time, and to international standards?
For decades, the answer was largely no, not because of a lack of talent, but because of a lack of structured opportunity, finance, and technology transfer.
The NCDMB’s most visible impact has been in reshaping the technical landscape of the industry. Indigenous fabrication yards, engineering firms, logistics providers, and service companies now occupy roles that were once monopolised by international contractors.
Local fabrication capacity has expanded significantly, reducing the need for offshore construction of platforms, modules, and subsea components. Nigerian engineering firms increasingly participate in Front End Engineering Design (FEED) and detailed engineering phases, areas traditionally guarded by foreign EPCs.
Perhaps more importantly, the human capital pipeline has deepened. Nigerian welders, engineers, project managers, and quality assurance professionals are now certified to global standards, enabling local firms to compete not just domestically, but regionally.
Yet the progress is uneven.
While construction, fabrication, and services have seen substantial localisation, high-end technologies, deepwater subsea systems, advanced process control, and proprietary software remain largely imported. The final push to 70 per cent will depend on how effectively Nigeria can localise not just execution, but intellectual property and advanced engineering capabilities.
Pillar Two: Compliance and Enforcement; The Hard Edge of Local Content
If technical capability is the carrot, compliance enforcement is the stick.
The NCDMB’s authority under the NOGICD Act gives it significant leverage over project approvals, Nigerian Content Plans, and procurement decisions. Over the past decade, the Board has steadily tightened its oversight, moving from advisory engagement to assertive enforcement.
Operators now understand that Nigerian content is not a negotiable add-on; it is a core project parameter. Failure to comply carries financial, reputational, and operational consequences.
This has altered behaviour across the industry. Project developers increasingly engage local suppliers earlier in the planning process, while international contractors have been forced to localise operations, partner with Nigerian firms, or risk exclusion.
However, enforcement remains a delicate balance.
Too little enforcement invites tokenism. Too many risks create bottlenecks, delays, and investor anxiety, especially at a time when Nigeria is competing aggressively for global capital.
The Board’s challenge has been to evolve from rule-enforcer to system-manager, using data, digital tools, and sector intelligence to distinguish between genuine capacity gaps and convenience-driven non-compliance.
As the industry moves into more technically complex deepwater and gas-focused projects, that judgment call will become even more critical.
Pillar Three: Enabling Business Environment; Speed, Capital, and Confidence
Local content cannot thrive in a hostile business environment.
Recognising this, the NCDMB’s Roadmap places unusual emphasis on project timelines, financing access, and investment confidence, areas traditionally viewed as outside the remit of a content regulator.
Through process digitisation and inter-agency coordination, the Board has worked to shorten approval cycles for Nigerian Content Plans, reducing one of the industry’s long-standing pain points. Faster approvals translate directly into lower project costs and improved investment attractiveness.
More transformative, however, has been the strategic deployment of the Nigerian Content Development Fund (NCDF). Rather than treating the Fund as a passive levy, the Board has channelled it into targeted interventions: credit support, vendor financing, and partnerships with financial institutions, to unlock capital for indigenous firms.
Access to finance remains one of the biggest structural barriers to Nigerian participation. Oil and gas projects are capital-intensive, risk-laden, and long-dated, conditions that sit uneasily with domestic banking structures.
By partially de-risking local participation, the NCDMB has helped Nigerian firms scale beyond subcontracting into lead roles.
Still, the tension remains unresolved: local content ambitions must coexist with investor economics. If localisation significantly inflates costs or delays timelines, capital will simply go elsewhere.
The success of the final Roadmap phase will depend on whether the Board can continue to align Nigerian participation with commercial efficiency.
Pillar Four: Organisational Capability; Reforming the Institution Behind the Policy
One of the least discussed but most consequential aspects of the NCDMB story is the institution itself.
Industrial policy often fails not because of flawed ideas, but because of weak implementing agencies. Bureaucratic inertia, skills gaps, and political interference can hollow out even the most ambitious frameworks.
Over the past decade, the NCDMB has invested heavily in internal capacity building, process standardisation, and data-driven decision-making. Digital platforms now track compliance metrics, supplier participation, and project performance in real time, improving transparency and accountability.
Equally important has been institutional continuity. Unlike many Nigerian agencies, the Board has benefited from relative leadership stability and policy coherence, allowing long-term strategies to mature rather than reset with every political cycle.
Yet new risks loom.
As Nigerian content expands beyond oil and gas into power, construction, and manufacturing, the NCDMB faces a potential mandate stretch. Scaling influence without diluting effectiveness will require careful institutional evolution, not bureaucratic expansion.
Pillar Five: Sectorial and Regional Market Linkages; From Oil Policy to Industrial Strategy
Perhaps the most forward-looking pillar of the Roadmap is its emphasis on cross-sector spillovers.
The logic is compelling: if Nigerian firms can meet the technical, safety, and quality demands of oil and gas projects, they should be competitive in power generation, infrastructure, and industrial construction.
Already, local content principles are shaping procurement and capacity development in the power sector, gas infrastructure, and large-scale construction projects. Skills developed in offshore fabrication now support bridge construction, shipbuilding, and industrial plant assembly.
This expansion marks a subtle but profound shift: Nigerian content is becoming an industrial policy instrument, not just an oil sector rule.
The long-term implication is that the NCDMB’s legacy may extend far beyond hydrocarbons, influencing how Nigeria approaches localisation across its economy.
The Last Nine Per cent: Why the Final Stretch Is the Hardest
Reaching 61 per cent local content required vision, enforcement, and sustained effort. Reaching 70 per cent will require something more elusive: structural resilience.
Several obstacles stand in the way.
First, foreign exchange volatility continues to distort project economics, making imported inputs unpredictable while constraining local firms’ access to capital equipment.
Second, technology gaps remain in high-end engineering and digital systems, areas where localisation requires long-term R&D investment rather than regulatory pressure.
Third, the global energy transition is reshaping capital allocation. Investors are more cautious, project pipelines are thinner, and timelines are longer, reducing the volume of new projects through which localisation can advance.
Finally, Nigeria’s broader macroeconomic environment, security concerns, fiscal pressures, and regulatory uncertainty continue to influence investor sentiment.
In this context, the final nine per cent is not merely a technical challenge; it is a test of whether Nigerian content has moved from policy-driven growth to market-sustained momentum.
A Defining Moment for Nigerian Industrial Policy
The story of the NCDMB is ultimately a story about Nigeria’s capacity to learn, adapt, and institutionalise reform.
From a standing start, the Board has helped transform local content from rhetoric into reality, embedding Nigerian firms across the oil and gas value chain. The gains are tangible, measurable, and internationally noteworthy.
But the journey is unfinished.
The next two years will determine whether Nigerian content consolidates into a permanent industrial foundation or plateaus as an impressive but incomplete reform.
If the 70 per cent target is achieved, Nigeria will have crossed a threshold few resource-dependent economies manage: turning extractive wealth into enduring industrial capability.
If it is not, the risk is not collapse, but stagnation; a gradual erosion of momentum as global energy dynamics shift.
For the NCDMB and for Nigeria’s energy economy, the stakes could not be higher. The question is no longer whether Nigerian content works. It is whether Nigeria is ready to finish what it started.
