…As Nigerians continue to battle economic hardship
With eyes firmly focused on 2027, the Presidency was visibly rattled by the recent negative verdict on the Nigerian economy, which will provide the plank for the second term bid of President Tinubu,
by Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, President of the African Development Bank, AfDB.
The recent remark on Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Per Capita Income (PCI), and the general economy by Adesina, at a public event in Lagos, is raising big concern in the All Progressives Congress-led administration of President Bola Tinubu ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The Presidency, sources in the seat of power informed Business Hallmark, is not happy with Adesina for ‘deliberately’ quoting figures he knew were not correct in order to paint the administration in a bad light.
According to the sources, top officials in the government are particularly worried about the opposition using the data provided by the respected economist and technocrat to campaign against the government in the 2027 polls.
It would be recalled that Adesina, while speaking at the 20th anniversary dinner of investment firm Chapel Hill Denham held recently in Lagos, had bemoaned Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Per Capital Income (PCI) figures, regretting that South Korea and some of its Asian neighbors had left Nigeria far behind despite being on the same level economically just before independence.
The two indices, GDP and PCI, are used in measuring the economic performance of a country or region at a given time.
For instance, while the GDP is a monetary measure of the market value of all the final goods and services produced and rendered in a specific time-£period by a country, PCI measures the average income earned per person in a given region or country in a specified year.
Inconvenience Truth
While quoting figures from a business and economy publication, Adesina put Nigeria’s GDP per capita in 1960 at $1,847, compared to its present level of $824. According to Adesina, Nigerians are worse off today than they were in 1960.
Rattled by Adesina’s claims, the Presidency quickly moved to shut them down before they gained traction.
The government, it was learnt, has given the green light to its media managers and Ok not to spare no effort that will poke holes in the figures presented by the AfDB’s henchman.
According to a source privy to the presidential directive, the troubleshooters were ordered to “fire from all cylinders.
“There is a camp in the Villa that has concluded that Adeshina has become politicized.
“We believe he (Adesina) has gone rogue. He is either being used by opposition politicians or he is prepping himself up for future political office.
“As a respected international figure, he is aware that his voice carries weight. Thankfully, he goofed in an environment of learned and knowledgeable people, who knew as much as he does and will ask questions.
“But unfortunately, most Nigerians are not schooled in finance or economics. They will help to broadcast this false rendition until it becomes ‘fact’.
“That’s why the Presidency has instructed us not to spare anyone, not even the respected AfDB boss, while putting things in perspective”, a source in the presidential media team informed our correspondent.
It’s not, therefore, surprising when Presidential spokesperson, Bayo Onanuga, went on an all out attack against Adesina.
A combative Onanuga while practically calling the AfDB president a liar, faulted him for presenting figures that, according to him, did not align with verified economic data.
“A few days ago, outgoing AfDB President Akinwumi Adesina, claimed that Nigerians today are worse off than in 1960, basing his conclusion on figures that do not align with available data.
“He claimed that Nigeria’s GDP per capita in 1960 was $1847 and it is $824 today. The quoted figures are not correct.
“However, available data show the Nigeria’s GDP was $4.2 billion in 1960, and per capita income for a population of 44.9 million was $93, not even one hundred dollars.
Facts Against Figures
“Our country’s GDP didn’t rise remarkably until the 1970s, when crude earnings ballooned. In 1970, our GDP rose to $12.55 billion. In 1975, it was $27.7 billion, $64.2 billion in 1980, and $164 billion in 1981.
“Up until 1980, per capita income did not exceed $880. It rose to $2187 in 1981 and dropped to $1844 in 1982. In 2014, after rebasing, it reached an all-time high of $3,200.
“These facts raise questions about the source of Dr. Adesina’s figures.
“But my mission in this response is not to poke holes in the erudite African banking president’s figures.
“The more substantive issue lies in Dr. Adesina’s conclusion based on these numbers.
“Dr. Adesina should know that GDP per capita is not the only criterion used to determine whether people live better lives now than in the past. Indeed, it is a poor tool for assessing living standards.
“Its primary usefulness is in giving us the metrics to compare economic output in a country or between countries.
“GDP masks many activities in a country’s economy. It neither discloses wealth distribution or income inequality nor accounts for the informal economy, which experts have said is enormous. It does not account for subsistence farming or income transfer from one family member to another.
“GDP per capita is silent on whether Nigerians in 2025 will enjoy better access to healthcare, education, and transportation, such as rail and air transport, than in 1960.
“This premise alone suggests why Dr. Adesina shouldn’t have arrived at his conclusion. Compared with 1960, Nigeria today has more primary, secondary, and tertiary schools. We have more road networks and more medical facilities, private and public.
“In our country, policymakers know that whatever GDP figure NBS publishes may not capture our economy’s full depth and breadth if it fails to include the informal economy, which some pundits have said may even be more significant than the formal economy. This underscores why Dr. Adesina should have considered all aspects of our economy before concluding.
“No objective observer can claim that Nigeria has not made progress since 1960. Today, as we await the NBS’s recalibration of our GDP, we can comfortably say without contradiction that it is at least 50 times, if not 100 times, more than it was at Independence.
“Adesina spoke like a politician, in the mold of Peter Obi and didn’t do due diligence before making his unverifiable statement”, Onanuga fired.
Politics at Play
Some of Adesina’s adversaries in government, it was learnt at the weekend, consider many of his remarks to be populist and politically motivated.
Though, the AfDB boss had not publicly declared any intention to contest for political office, speculations have been on the rise about his future beyond the AfDB, especially as the 2027 general elections beckons.
This made most political observers who spoke on the matter to highlight the political tone the attack against Adesina took.
“The most striking element of Bayo Onanuga’s statement was its political tone.
“By likening Adesina to the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in the 2023 election, Peter Obi, whose data-heavy economic assessments are often contested, the Presidency surely meant to discredit him as an unserious populist”, said Dipo Banjo, a public affairs analyst.
Meanwhile, BH’s fact-checking desk looked into Adesina’s claims. Its findings showed that some of the figures he presented were off the mark.
According to archival documents of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank on countries economy obtained online by BH, Nigeria’s GDP per capita stood at US$93.40 in 1960 (IMF figures) and and US$93.14 (World Bank) respectively.
Meanwhile, the World Bank put Nigeria’s GDP per capital in 2023 at $2,019.66, while IMF put it at $877.07 in 2024.
Wrong and Right
Nigeria predominantly practiced an agrarian economy and limited industrialisation with formative infrastructure in the 60s.
The economy was just beginning to develop and income levels were modest by global standards.
Therefore, Nigeria could not have had a GDP per capita of $1,847 in 1960 as claimed by Adesina when the country’s total GDP stood at $4.2 billion.
However, while the two Bretton Woods institutions figures actually contradicted Adesina’s referenced figure, they confirmed a downward trend that suggests average Nigerians have become less productive in both absolute and relative terms, compared to the optimal economic growth and output of the 1970s oil boom.
For instance, findings showed that the discovery and exploitation of oil wells in the late 1950s and early 60s marked a turning point in Nigeria’s economic growth.
The revenue earned from the oil boom era of the 70s, which saw a barrel of crude oil top $20, spurred economic diversification efforts, infrastructure development and urbanisation, which pushed Nigeria’s GDP per capita to over $880 by 1980.
According to a World Bank data, after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) rebasing exercise of 2014, which revised the size of the economy upwards, Nigeria’s GDP per capita climbed to $2,585.7.
So, in actual fact, the nation’s GDP per capita didn’t cross the thousand mark until 1981 when it moved to $2,187 from $880 in 1980. It again dropped to $1,844 in 1982.
This obvious slip on Adesina’s part gave the hawks in the Tinubu’s government the weapon to assail him on all fronts.
It was learnt that the current administration’s attack dogs were given the go ahead to continue to hammer on Adesina’s obvious slip in order to cut him to size.
“It was a terrible error on the part of the former minister of agriculture. Though he meant well by trying to call the attention of the administration to the slide, but he exposed himself for a sucker punch when he failed to get his facts right”, a sympathetic source in government told our correspondent.
Meanwhile, BH reliably gathered that the embattled Adesina had reached out to some influential contacts in the Presidency to help beg the president he meant no arm.
According to a source in the Villa, who did not want to be identified, the two parties had reached out to each other and a truce had been reached.
“I can confirm to you that the taskforce set up to go after him had been told to stand down. That’s why you are not seeing more missiles thrown at him since Onanuga’s last Monday rebuttal.
“I think Adesina has learnt his lessons. He is meant for higher places. So, he should know how to pick his words. He should learn to be diplomatic.
“Even when he is right, there are better ways to go about it. You can stylishly call out a foolish man without injuring his ego and still end up having his ears”, the source admonished.
SOURCE: hallmarknews.com