By Patience Chat Moses
In the rapidly accelerating race towards a clean energy future, a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) casts a stark light on a growing vulnerability within the global solid mineral sector: an alarming concentration of critical mineral supply chains.
Released on May 21, 2025, the IEA’s “Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025” reveals a trend that could significantly impact industries worldwide and ultimately, consumers’ pockets. The report highlights that for essential minerals like copper, lithium, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth elements – the very building blocks of electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure, and smart technologies – the average market share of the top three producing countries surged to 86% in 2024, up from 82% just four years prior in 2020.
At the heart of this concentration lies China, which has emerged as the dominant refiner for an astonishing 19 out of 20 strategic minerals examined in the report, holding an average share of approximately 75% of the global refining capacity. While other nations like Indonesia show strong growth in specific minerals such as nickel, the overall picture points to a highly centralised and potentially fragile supply network.
The Stakes Are High
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol didn’t mince words, stating, “Critical mineral supply chains can be highly vulnerable to supply shocks, be they from extreme weather, a technical failure or trade disruptions. The impact of a supply shock can be far-reaching, bringing higher prices for consumers and reducing industrial competitiveness.” He drew parallels to the energy crisis in Europe following Russia’s natural gas cutoffs and the global silicon-based computer chip shortage that crippled auto production during the pandemic.
The implications are profound. As the world pivots from fossil fuels, the demand for these “small in quantity, large in impact” minerals is skyrocketing. Any disruption in their supply could derail the clean energy transition, stifle technological innovation, and lead to significant economic instability. The report warns of a looming 30% shortfall in copper supply by 2030, a mineral vital for electric wiring and power grids, if planned production doesn’t keep pace with demand.
A Call for Diversification
While global markets are currently well-supplied and prices have generally fallen, the IEA’s outlook serves as a critical warning. The “golden rule of energy security is diversification,” Birol emphasised, extending this principle to economic security as well. The report underscores that market forces alone will not be sufficient to address this growing challenge. Instead, it calls for well-designed government policies, including strategic financing and other measures, to foster the development of new, diversified sources of critical minerals.
This means encouraging exploration, investment in new mining and refining capacities across a broader range of countries, and promoting responsible sourcing practices that consider environmental and social impacts. The future of our clean energy ambitions, and indeed, global industrial stability, hinges on our collective ability to create more resilient, diversified, and sustainable critical mineral supply chains. The time for action is now.