-By Fred Ojiegbe
There was a slight increase by one, in Nigeria’s rig count for the month of February, as it recorded seven, against six recorded in the month of January.
This happened at a period the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, increased its rig count by seven, having recorded 329 in February, as against 322 recorded in February, latest data from OPEC indicated. World rig count witnessed a surge of 62, as its February record indicated 1,386, as against 1,324 recorded in January. Among the 13 – OPEC members, Algeria led with an increase of three, as its rig count showed 22 in February, as against 19 recorded in January. It was closely followed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which had plus two, having witnessed 44 as against 42 recorded within the period under review. Three other OPEC members, Gabon, Libya and Saudi Arabia had plus one each. While Gabon had one as against zero, Libya had 12, as against 11 and Saudi Arabia had 63, as against 62 recorded within the period under review. Two other members had minus in their rig counts. While Iraq had 31 as against 32, Kuwait had 28 as against 29 recorded within the period under review. Five other members had their rig counts unchanged within the period. Angola, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Iran and Venezuela had 4, 0, 0, 117 and 0, respectively. Non OPEC members such as the United States of America, Canada Norway and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD Americas had impressive increase within the period. USA had an increase of 23, having recorded 397 in February, as against 374 recorded in January, while Canada had an increase of 15, having recorded 171 in February, as against 156 recorded in January. OECD Americas had an increase of 37 having recorded 614 in February, as against 577 recorded the previous month. Norway had an increase of three, having recorded 18 in February, as against 15 recorded the previous month. OECD Europe had plus four having recorded 98, as against 94 recorded the previous month.
World Oil Supply
The latest OPEC data stated Non-OPEC liquids supply for 2021 is forecast to grow by 0.95 million barrels daily, mb/d to average 63.8 mb/d. However, upstream capital spending in 2021 is expected to remain well below 2019 levels, mainly due to the significantly lower projected investment in US shale. The US liquids supply growth forecast for 2021 remained unchanged at 0.16 mb/d, however, tight crude output is forecast to decline year-on-year, y-o-y by 0.1 mb/d, while uncertainties persist. The main drivers for supply growth for 2021 are expected to be Canada, the US, Norway, and Brazil. The data also stated that OPEC natural gas liquids, NGLs for 2021, are forecast to grow by 0.08 mb/d year-on-year to average 5.21 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in February was down by 0.65 mb/d month-on-month, m-o-m to average 24.85 mb/d, according to secondary sources. Preliminary non-OPEC liquids output in February, including OPEC NGLs, is estimated to have decreased by 0.67 mb/d m-o-m, mainly in the US due to tremendous frozen temperature, lower by 4.63 mb/d y-o-y. As a result, preliminary data indicates that global oil supply decreased in February by 1.31 mb/d m-o-m to average 92.28 mb/d, down by 7.62 mb/d y-o-y.
World Oil Demand
According to the OPEC data, in 2021, world oil demand is forecast to increase by 5.9 million barrels daily, mb/d, reflecting the positive economic impact on oil demand during the second half, 2H21. Total oil demand is foreseen to reach 96.3 mb/d with most consumption appearing in the 2H21. The data further explained that oil demand in the OECD region is expected to increase by 2.6 mb/d to reach 44.6 mb/d in 2021. Oil requirements in the first half, 1H21 were adjusted lower mainly due to extended measures to control COVID-19 in parts of Europe and higher unemployment rates in the US. At the same time, 2H21 oil demand was adjusted higher to reflect an expectation of a solid economic recovery and the positive impact from vaccination rollouts. OECD Americas is projected to see the highest increase, on the back of recovering transportation fuels and healthy light- and middle-distillate requirements. For the OECD region, oil demand is estimated to rise by 3.3 mb/d to reach 51.6 mb/d in 2021. Demand growth is anticipated to be driven by China, followed by India and Other Asian countries. Support is expected to be provided by a healthy recovery in economic activities, as well as encouraging demand from the industrial sector and improving transportation fuel requirements. Demand for petrochemical feedstock is also forecast to support demand growth in 2021.