As Nigeria pushes forward with its ambitious N54.9 trillion budget for 2025, experts are raising alarms that President Donald Trump’s aggressive energy policy could severely impact the nation’s revenue projections, especially its $75 per barrel crude oil benchmark.
According to reports, President Trump’s “Drill Baby Drill” policy aims to boost U.S. fossil fuel production, which analysts believe could lead to an oversupply in the global oil market, driving prices down. Dr. Muda Yusuf, Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), warned, “President Trump’s policy would hinder the realization of Nigeria’s $75 per barrel 2025 budget target, escalate high inflation, while stalling Diaspora remittances.”
The U.S., already the world’s largest oil producer at 21.91 million barrels per day, holds significant influence over global oil prices. Yusuf noted, “The Trump administration’s commitment to increasing oil output and moderating global geopolitical tensions, especially the Russian-Ukraine war, could heighten global oil supply and depress prices.”
Analysts fear a potential drop below Nigeria’s budget benchmark, jeopardizing government revenue and foreign exchange earnings. Clifford Egbomeade, an analyst, cautioned, “If President Trump crashes global oil prices, Nigeria’s economy will face severe financial strain, with increased budget deficits, weakened foreign reserves, and further naira depreciation.”
However, not all experts agree. Dele Oye, President of NACCIMA, dismissed the panic, stating, “This Trump effect is being over-dramatized.” Similarly, Prof. Wumi Iledare argued, “President Trump cannot increase oil production by rhetoric. The fundamentals of demand and supply determine prices.”
While opinions differ, the consensus is clear: Nigeria must diversify its economy. Egbomeade stressed, “The only sustainable path forward for Nigeria is to accelerate economic diversification and reduce dependence on crude oil.”
As Nigeria braces for potential financial turbulence, the question remains: Can the nation shield its economy from global oil market shocks under Trump’s energy dominance agenda?
SOURCE: Demujee