Since assuming office in May 2023, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has made regional diplomacy and economic integration a cornerstone of his administration’s foreign policy. Among Nigeria’s neighbours, Niger Republic has featured prominently—both in headlines and behind closed doors—as a critical partner in trade, infrastructure, and energy cooperation. Yet, the past two years have also seen severe diplomatic strain. Following a military coup in Niger in July 2023, Nigeria led ECOWAS in imposing sanctions and cutting off electricity supplies—decisions that dramatically reshaped the tone and texture of bilateral relations.
Despite these tensions, signs of economic resilience and recalibration have emerged. The reopening of Nigeria’s northern borders in March 2024 led to an astonishing 204% increase in exports to Niger within one quarter, reaffirming the deep economic interdependence between the two nations. Meanwhile, major infrastructure projects such as the Kano-Maradi railway and the proposed Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline underscore Nigeria’s long-term strategic interest in linking its economy to the Sahel and beyond.
But what do these developments mean for Nigeria’s economy, and are the benefits mutual? Has the Tinubu administration struck the right balance between political principles and economic pragmatism? And how sustainable are these cross-border engagements in light of Niger’s recent withdrawal from ECOWAS and alignment with the Alliance of Sahel States?
To unpack these complex questions, Valuechain’s William Emmanuel Ukpoju sat with Dr. Onah Peter Thompson, a renowned analyst, who provides insight into the driving forces, risks, and opportunities inherent in Nigeria’s evolving relationship with the Niger Republic. From trade dynamics and infrastructure strategy to security concerns and shifts in regional power, this interview illuminates the economics behind the headlines—and what they signify for West Africa’s future.
How has the reopening of Nigeria’s borders with Niger Republic in 2024 influenced bilateral trade?
The border reopening marked a significant turning point. Prior to this, the closure—triggered by the political fallout following Niger’s 2023 military coup—had severely hampered cross-border trade. When Nigeria reopened the borders in March 2024, there was an immediate and dramatic rebound. In fact, Nigeria’s exports to Niger surged by over 200% in the following quarter alone, rising from N6.72 billion in Q1 to N20.46 billion in Q2 2024. This recovery underscores how closely knit the economies of both countries are, especially in informal trade, agriculture, and consumer goods. It also revealed the heavy dependence of border communities on one another for daily livelihoods.
What’s the economic rationale behind the $1.3 billion Kano-Maradi railway project?
The Kano-Maradi railway is both a symbolic and strategic project. Economically, it aims to connect landlocked Niger to Nigeria’s commercial hubs and ports, particularly in Lagos. This connectivity reduces transportation costs and offers Niger an alternative to coastal access through Benin or Togo. For Nigeria, it strengthens economic influence in the Sahel region and opens new markets for northern producers. Strategically, the railway fosters regional integration and positions Nigeria as the backbone of West African logistics and trade networks. It’s not just about economic returns but also about geopolitical positioning.
The ECOWAS sanctions and Nigeria’s electricity cut-off to Niger were significant decisions. What were their economic impacts?
Those actions were politically motivated but had deep economic implications. Niger relied on Nigeria for up to 70% of its electricity through interconnection lines from the Nigerian grid. The sudden cut-off led to widespread power shortages, disrupting businesses, hospitals, and essential services. For Nigeria, it meant a temporary suspension of power sales revenue and created diplomatic tensions. Regionally, it served as a stark reminder of how intertwined national infrastructures are, and how political decisions can ripple through economies. These sanctions hurt ordinary citizens more than elites, which raised ethical concerns about the long-term efficacy of such measures.
With Niger’s withdrawal from ECOWAS and formation of the Alliance of Sahel States, how do you see this affecting Nigeria’s economic policies toward Niger?
The withdrawal creates a diplomatic vacuum. ECOWAS previously provided a structured platform for resolving trade disputes, harmonizing tariffs, and managing cross-border investments. Without it, Nigeria now faces the challenge of crafting a new bilateral economic framework with Niger. The Alliance of Sahel States—comprising Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso—is more of a security coalition than an economic bloc, so it’s unclear how it will approach regional commerce. Nigeria will likely adopt a pragmatic approach: maintain economic ties, engage Niger diplomatically, and ensure border stability, even if political ideologies differ.
What’s the status and potential of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline project involving Nigeria and Niger?
The Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) is an ambitious project intended to transport natural gas from Nigeria through Niger and Algeria to Europe. If completed, it would significantly enhance regional energy cooperation and create a new revenue stream for all participating countries. For Niger, it offers transit fees and economic activity. However, the project has been slow due to insecurity along the route, financing difficulties, and changing energy dynamics in Europe. Despite these challenges, the TSGP still holds promise, especially as Europe seeks alternatives to Russian gas. Political stability and investor confidence will be critical to its revival.
How did the 2023 coup in Niger impact economic collaboration and investor sentiment?
The coup introduced substantial uncertainty. Most development partners and private investors paused or scaled back operations in Niger. Ongoing projects with Nigerian firms were affected, especially in transport and energy. It also put a strain on Nigeria’s leadership role in ECOWAS, as it was forced to navigate between enforcing sanctions and preserving long-term regional interests. In the short term, it disrupted trade and investments. However, some actors are already recalibrating, especially as the reality of Niger’s political shift settles in. Investors are watching to see how durable and predictable governance becomes.
What measures have Nigeria and Niger taken to address security concerns along their shared border?
Security remains a critical concern, particularly with the rise of terrorism and banditry along the Nigeria-Niger border. Both countries have recently intensified intelligence sharing and coordinated patrols. In April 2025, their foreign ministers met in Abuja to reaffirm commitments to joint border security and economic cooperation. These discussions aim to balance security enforcement with economic facilitation, ensuring that legitimate trade is not choked off by counterterrorism efforts. There’s also renewed interest in deploying technology such as drones and satellite surveillance to monitor volatile border areas.
How does the Niger Basin Authority support economic cooperation between the two countries?
The Niger Basin Authority (NBA) plays a behind-the-scenes yet vital role in sustainable development. It brings together all countries within the Niger River basin to jointly manage water resources, coordinate dam projects, and support agriculture. Nigeria and Niger both benefit from shared irrigation and hydroelectric infrastructure. The NBA facilitates funding, technical expertise, and climate resilience planning, which are essential for the long-term viability of the region’s agricultural economies. It’s an example of how shared natural resources can serve as a foundation for economic collaboration even in tense political times.
How important is Niger to Nigeria’s food security and agricultural trade?
Very important. There’s a large volume of informal agricultural trade across the Nigeria-Niger border. Niger supplies livestock, grains, and vegetables to northern Nigeria, while Nigeria exports processed foods and fertilizer. During periods of border closure, food prices spiked in northern markets. In recent years, joint efforts in sustainable farming—especially in states like Niger (Nigeria) and Zinder (Niger Republic)—have aimed at improving productivity and mitigating the effects of desertification. A stable trade relationship benefits both countries’ food security strategies.
Looking ahead, what are the main opportunities and risks in Nigeria-Niger economic relations?
The opportunities are vast: increased regional trade, energy cooperation, infrastructure expansion, and climate adaptation partnerships. Projects like the Kano-Maradi rail and TSGP have the potential to transform economic geography. However, risks persist—chief among them political instability, cross-border terrorism, and regional fragmentation. If Nigeria continues to anchor its policies in pragmatic diplomacy, economic inclusiveness, and regional leadership, it can turn these challenges into long-term gains. But it will require patience, consistency, and a firm commitment to mutual benefit.
Dr. Onah Peter Thompson is a faculty member at Appalachian State University, specialising in Political Science with a regional focus on Africa. His thematic expertise encompasses computational politics, decision sciences, migration, environmental policy, and security studies. He joined the Department of Government and Justice Studies in 2022 as an Assistant Professor. He earned a Ph.D. in Public Policy from the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. His research and teaching expertise are African Politics, forced displacement, development, climate change, and violent conflicts (including climate change-induced conflicts). Because of his passion and thematic expertise in these areas, he has been involved in high-level research supported by the U.S. Army Research Office and the National Science Foundation. Dr. Thompson’s research contributions are widely recognized, with publications in renowned journals including the Journal of Contemporary African Studies, Proceedings of the Society for the Study of Artificial Intelligence and Simulation of Behavior (AISB), and the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (IJERPH). In addition to his teaching responsibilities, Dr. Thompson has served in various administrative roles, including as a member of the Scholarship Committee of the Government and Justice Studies Department and as a Judge for the Centre of Judaic, Holocaust, and Peace Studies Student Research Prize at Appalachian State University. Currently, he is a trustee of the UK-based EdFord project that seeks to use education as a tool to reduce inequality in Africa.