The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), yesterday said Nigeria’s economic outlook remains positive based on oil production, infrastructure investment and stronger business activity.
This was contained in its Monthly Oil Report released in its X handle.
The report said: “Overall, Nigeria’s near-term outlook remains positive, supported by oil production, reform progress, infrastructure investment and stronger business activity, but high inflation, elevated borrowing costs and the need to preserve exchange-rate stability remain important challenges.”
OPEC said Nigeria’s economic outlook remains supported by improved macroeconomic stability, steady oil production, recovering private-sector activity and continued reform momentum.
The economy, according to the report, expanded by 3.9 per cent, year-on-year (y-o-y) in the First Quarter of 2026 (Q126), only slightly below the Q4 2025 pace of 4.0 per cent, confirming that growth remains close to recent highs.
OPEC disclosed that the non-oil economy continues to provide the main support, with activity driven by agriculture, manufacturing, construction, trade, and finance and insurance, while higher oil output has improved fiscal revenues, foreign- exchange inflows and external buffers. The report added that Survey indicators also point to continued near-term momentum.
According to the report, Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI eased only slightly to 53.4 in June, down from 54.1 in May, but remained clearly above the expansionary threshold, supported by higher output, stronger new orders and resilient customer demand.
On the other hand, OPEC said at the same time, manufacturing activity was slightly softer.
The cartel predicted that higher domestic refining capacity, including improved fuel supply from the Dangote refinery, should continue to support energy availability and reduce some import-related pressures.
At the same time, the report recalled that inflation rose further to 15.9 per cent, y-o-y, in May, up from 15.7 per cent, y-o-y, in April, with food prices still putting pressure on household purchasing power.
Warning Nigeria, OPEC said: “This means that monetary policy is likely to remain cautious, despite improved exchange-rate stability and stronger oil-related flows.”
On crude oil production, the report revealed that the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) total crude oil production in June 2026 soared by 3million barrels per day to hit 36.28mb/d.
It was an indication that 33.28mb/d was the total output of the DOC in the previous month of May 2026.
The report said: “Total DoC crude oil production averaged 36.28 mb/d in June 2026, which is about 3 mb/d higher, m-o-m.”
Global oil demand, according to OPEC, is forecast to grow by a healthy 0.8 mb/d in 2026, Year-on-Year, following a slight downward revision from last month’s assessment.
It added that the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecast to grow by about 40 tb/d, while the non-OECD forecast to grow by about 0.74 mb/d.
OPEC revealed that the demand for DoC crude in 2027 remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 43.6 mb/d, which is about 1.2 mb/d above the 2026 forecast.
On US crude imports, the report said “US crude imports averaged 5.4 mb/d in June, according to preliminary EIA weekly data. Compared with the previous month, this was down 433 tb/d, or over 7 per cent.
“Declines were seen coming from Saudi Arabia, Colombia, Brazil, Canada and Nigeria, which were slightly offset by higher flows from Venezuela and Libya.”
SOURCE: The Nation Nigeria
