By Ese Ufuoma
After years of stop-start capital spending, a convergence of policy fixes, fresh licensing, stronger local content push and explicit company plans now making 2026 a realistic year for bigger upstream and gas spending, but security, fiscal uncertainty and global demand still temper the upside.
Nigeria could see more than $10 billion in fresh upstream investment from 2026 as a new licensing round covering 50 blocks, renewed interest from international oil companies, and multi-year capital plans from indigenous players align to create one of the strongest spending cycles in years. If fully realised, the surge would mark a significant reversal from the cautious capital environment of the past decade.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has launched an extensive licensing round designed to attract global and local investors. With fiscal terms anchored in the Petroleum Industry Act, operators now have clearer rules, more predictable timelines and a more stable framework than in previous bid rounds.
Unlike past cycles affected by regulatory delays, this round appears to be structured for faster progress, with clearer expectations for timelines and approvals. For energy watchers, including Valuechain, this shift signals a more investment-ready environment.
International oil companies, long deterred by operational risks and regulatory uncertainty, are again signalling interest. Industry briefings suggest that Chevron may deploy a rig in late 2026, an early indicator of re-engagement from a major player. Such activity often triggers broader contractor mobilisation, well planning and medium-term commitments.
Meanwhile, Local independents remain a major part of Nigeria’s investment story. Companies such as Seplat Energy, ND Western, First E&P and others now operate key assets once held by the majors. Seplat’s recently announced multi-year programme outlines billions of dollars in drilling, brownfield enhancements and gas development between 2026 and 2030. Indigenous firms typically move faster once conditions are favourable, and their spending tends to boost local fabrication, engineering and services, an impact closely followed by Valuechain.
Additionally, the gas segment could see the most confident investment jump. The federal government has initiated payments to clear outstanding gas debts owed to suppliers, a move that reduces liquidity risks and restores confidence in the gas-to-power and processing markets. With Nigeria pushing a “gas-powered economy” agenda, 2026 could bring new processing plants, pipeline projects and modular facilities. Producers are already reviewing stalled and emerging projects with fresh optimism.
Where the Money Will Likely Flow:
*Near-Field Oil Developments: Quick returns, minimal delays and brownfield advantages make these a top choice for both local and international operators.
*Offshore Tie-Ins and FPSO Upgrades: They offer medium-term stability and leverage existing infrastructure.
*Gas Processing and Gas-to-Power Projects: The newly cleared debts could unlock stalled proposals and accelerate new ones.
*Service-Sector Activity: Fabrication yards, engineering firms and Project 100 beneficiaries are expected to gain more local work as the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board expands support.
Despite the favourable signals, several deep-rooted issues remain:
*Ongoing security concerns and crude theft
*FX pressures affecting equipment and payments
*Potential amendments to the PIA
*Global oil price uncertainty
*Infrastructure constraints and high logistics costs
As we advance, the big question remains: can Nigeria convert renewed regulatory momentum into real wells, rigs and capital expenditure?
The answer depends on consistent policy execution, improved security, and sustained investor confidence. If these align, 2026 could usher in a meaningful investment revival, one that raises production, strengthens government revenue and reshapes the sector’s medium-term outlook.
For analysts, operators and platforms like Valuechain, all eyes remain on how quickly the opportunities of this licensing era translate into actual field activity.