In September 2026, the World Meteorological Organization released its latest assessment, confirming that a “very strong” El Niño event is forming and is expected to peak between October and December. Data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates a 75% probability that this event will become the strongest El Niño since 1950, with the three-month RONI index potentially exceeding +2.5°C. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s forecast is even more severe, projecting sea surface temperature anomalies in the NINO.3 region to reach +3.6°C, comparable to the historical record set in December 1997.
Traditionally, El Niño’s impacts have been concentrated in Asia and the Pacific. This time, however, West Africa sits at the centre of risk. In a warning issued in September, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) noted that 52.8 million people in West Africa and the Sahel are already facing acute food insecurity and that this climate shock is landing “on a baseline already marked by conflict-driven crisis, rather than a stable foundation that can easily absorb a climate shock.”
Nigeria: The Gap Between Warning and Infrastructure
In its Seasonal Climate Prediction released in February 2026, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), based on what was then an assessment of weak La Niña and neutral ENSO conditions, predicted normal to above-normal rainfall. That forecast has since been overtaken by the speed of subsequent ocean warming. By August, several states in northern Nigeria, including Kano, Katsina, and Sokoto, were already experiencing significant soil moisture stress, delayed planting, and slowed crop development.
At the response level, Nigeria has adopted a “warning first, infrastructure later” approach. The Lagos State Government issued a flood red alert in March, urging residents of low-lying communities such as Makoko, Iwaya, and Agiliti to prepare for possible displacement, and intensified year-round drainage maintenance. The National Emergency Management Agency advised state governments to clear drainage channels and pre-position relief materials. NiMet has also begun integrating artificial intelligence into its forecasting operations and expanding digital climate advisory services.
But as environmental expert and retired Air Vice Marshal Akugbe Iyamu noted in a July interview, Lagos “has not seen any evacuation pattern or state-funded shelter.” He warned, “This is just the tip of the iceberg. This is just the beginning. The next disaster will be more devastating.” In affected communities, residents are more direct: the warnings have been received, but the long-term infrastructure has not arrived.
Senegal: Cautious Response Amid Forecast Divergence
The 2026 rainy season forecast released in May by Senegal’s National Agency for Civil Aviation and Meteorology (ANACIM) presented a complex picture. Oumar Konté, the agency’s director, noted that the first phase from May to July would be “below normal”, potentially causing “delayed installation of the rainy season and prolonged dry spells”, with the risk of planting failure. But after August, as sea surface temperatures rise along the Senegal-Mauritania coast, precipitation could suddenly intensify, with “all rainfall concentrated in a short period, potentially bringing extreme events and flood risks.”
Yet Senegal’s core dilemma lies in forecast uncertainty. UNDP analysis notes that, unlike East or Southern Africa, “West and Central Africa remains a region of genuine forecast disagreement”. WMO and the Copernicus Climate Change Service predict below-normal rainfall in the Sahel from June to September, while the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) points to the opposite conclusion: a wetter central-eastern Sahel and a drier Gulf of Guinea.
This uncertainty is already reflected in economic decision-making. Senegal’s 2026 amended finance bill sharply downgraded its economic growth forecast from 5% to 2.7%, explicitly citing “expected rainfall deficits linked to the El Niño phenomenon” as one of the reasons. At the operational level, ANACIM announced it would update forecasts monthly and hold workshops in each province to deliver information directly to farmers and herders. Hydrological authorities warned that flows in the Senegal and Gambia river basins are expected to be normal to below normal but that this “does not mean there will be no flood risk.”
Equatorial Guinea: Vulnerability Beneath a Data Void
Among the three countries, Equatorial Guinea’s situation is the most precarious. According to a 2025 project design report by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), the country “lacks a national meteorological service and extensive reliable climate data”, with “only two conventional weather stations, located at Malabo and Bata airports.” The report explicitly states, “Equatorial Guinea has neither the infrastructure nor the professional capacity to develop a national meteorological service in the short term.”
On institutional capacity, Equatorial Guinea’s General Directorate of Civil Protection (DGPC), established in 2010, is still in the process of building its organisational structure and a nationwide civil protection force. IFAD’s report ranks Equatorial Guinea 177th globally in “readiness to translate investment into adaptation measures” and 100th out of 187 countries on the ND-GAIN index, underscoring its vulnerability.
For a country rich in oil yet ranking only 133rd globally on the Human Development Index, the capacity to respond to climate shocks is constrained by weak institutions, missing data, and a thin private sector. Agriculture, fisheries, and coastal infrastructure, the very sectors most exposed to El Niño, are precisely the areas where data is scarcest and adaptive capacity weakest.
Regional Coordination: Progress and Gaps
At the regional level in West Africa, ECOWAS is working with the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) on an EU-funded project aimed at bridging “the critical divide between early warning and early response.” In August 2026, UNDRR convened the EU Civil Protection Mechanism, the Copernicus Earth Observation service, ACMAD, the AGRHYMET Regional Centre, and Nigeria’s National Space Research and Development Agency (NASRDA), among others, to discuss “practical solutions for mitigating El Niño’s impacts”.
But a significant distance remains between the establishment of coordination mechanisms and action on the ground. In its September appeal, UNDP emphasised that “every dollar invested in disaster reduction saves about four to seven dollars in subsequent response and recovery costs,” and urged governments and donors to “invest immediately in anticipatory action.” Yet global humanitarian fundraising in 2025 received only $12 billion, the worst funding backdrop in a decade.
For Nigeria, Senegal, and Equatorial Guinea, the test of the 2026 El Niño is not whether warnings are issued; they have been. It is the speed of converting warning into action. As UNDRR summed it up, El Niño provides months of warning time; “whether that warning is used is a matter of governance, not meteorology.”