How President Tinubu’s policies unlocked $8 billion in new oil and gas investments within 18 months
With over $8 billion in major oil and gas Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) in less than two years, Nigeria’s upstream sector is witnessing its strongest investment revival in a decade
By William Emmanuel Ukpoju
Shell’s $2 billion HI gas project stands at the heart of this momentum — a tangible result of President Tinubu’s reform agenda and the renewed confidence of global investors in Nigeria’s gas-led growth strategy.
A Turning Point for Nigeria’s Gas Ambition
Nigeria’s “Decade of Gas” policy, long touted as the bridge between the country’s fossil-fuel heritage and its cleaner-energy future, has reached a decisive inflexion point. On October 14, 2025, the Federal Government announced that Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company (SNEPCo) had reached a Final Investment Decision (FID) on the $2 billion HI Field gas development in OML 144.
The shallow-offshore Non-Associated Gas (NAG) project will deliver roughly 350 million standard cubic feet of gas per day (mmscf/d) beginning in 2028, equivalent to almost a third of the entire gas requirement for Nigeria LNG’s Train 7. For a field discovered as far back as 1985, this development marks a new era of disciplined project execution and a renewed appetite among international oil companies to reinvest in Nigeria’s upstream landscape.
More than just another upstream project, HI represents the consolidation of a reform blueprint that is re-anchoring Nigeria’s hydrocarbon economy on transparency, efficiency, and investor trust.
Three FIDs, One Reform Philosophy
With the HI project, Nigeria has now secured three major upstream FIDs in just 18 months: Shell’s HI and Ubeta gas projects and TotalEnergies’ Bonga North deep-water development. Together, these projects commit more than $8 billion in new investments since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office in 2023, an unprecedented inflow after years of stagnation in exploration and production approvals.
Each of these projects illustrates a different dimension of the government’s energy-sector reform philosophy:
• HI and Ubeta (Non-Associated Gas): Driving gas-based industrialisation, LNG expansion, and domestic supply for power and clean cooking.
• Bonga North (Deepwater Oil and Gas): Re-positioning Nigeria as a deepwater frontier with competitive fiscal incentives.
Collectively, these FIDs underpin the administration’s determination to unlock long-stranded resources, restore investor confidence, and make gas the backbone of Nigeria’s economic growth.
Presidential Directives as Reform Catalysts
The catalyst for this investment resurgence lies in a set of Presidential Directives issued between 2024 and 2025; policy actions coordinated by the Office of the Special Adviser to the President on Energy, Mrs. Olu Arowolo Verheijen.
These directives, now embedded in legislative and regulatory instruments, have streamlined processes that once suffocated project approvals. Key achievements include:
• Fiscal incentives for Non-Associated Gas development, notably under Presidential Directive 40, which made shallow and onshore gas projects financially competitive.
• Simplified contracting and licensing procedures, cutting approval timelines that previously stretched beyond two years.
• Reduced operational bottlenecks through collaboration between NUPRC, NNPC Ltd., and the Ministry of Finance on fiscal coordination.
• Improved transparency in field development plan (FDP) approvals and divestment oversight.
These steps have not only accelerated investment decision-making but have also signalled to global investors that Nigeria is serious about competitiveness, governance, and results.
“With the Ubeta FID and now the HI FID, we have secured the gas supply needed to make NLNG Train 7 not just possible but transformative,” said Mrs. Verheijen. “These projects strengthen Nigeria’s LNG reliability to global markets while expanding LPG supply domestically, reducing imports, boosting foreign exchange, and advancing clean cooking access for millions of Nigerians.”
From Discovery to Delivery: HI Field’s Long Road
The HI Field in OML 144, discovered by Shell in 1985, has long symbolised Nigeria’s challenge of converting potential into performance. For four decades, development stalled due to fiscal uncertainty, infrastructure constraints, and shifting investment priorities within Shell’s global portfolio.
That stasis ended with the Tinubu administration’s fiscal reforms. Under Presidential Directive 40, HI’s economy became viable again, prompting Shell’s board to sanction the $2 billion investment.
Once operational, the field is expected to:
• Produce 350 mmscf/d of gas, feeding both domestic and export markets.
• Supply roughly 15 per cent of Nigeria LNG’s total feedgas across Trains 1 to 7 when combined with the Ubeta project.
• Support thousands of direct and indirect jobs during construction and operations.
• Catalyse local fabrication, logistics, and services across the Niger Delta.
Shell’s Upstream President, Peter Costello, underscored the project’s strategic alignment: “Following recent investment decisions related to the Bonga deep-water development, today’s announcement demonstrates our continued commitment to Nigeria’s energy sector, with a focus on Deepwater and Integrated Gas.”
Why the FID Matters
The HI project’s importance extends far beyond the numbers. It consolidates Nigeria’s status as a reliable LNG supplier, bolsters its energy security, and strengthens its foreign-exchange base. It also showcases how targeted policy reforms can unlock capital that had been frozen for years.
For the government, it represents tangible proof that reforms deliver. For operators, it signals that Nigeria is once again a credible partner. And for citizens, it promises energy stability, new jobs, and local economic spillovers.
In addition, the FID has fiscal and macroeconomic implications:
• Revenue stability: The increased gas output will enhance royalties and taxes while stabilising export earnings.
• Foreign exchange inflows: LNG revenues will help cushion Nigeria’s external reserves and exchange-rate management.
• Domestic supply security: Gas from HI and Ubeta will improve power generation and reduce dependence on imported LPG.
• Emission reduction: Replacing diesel with gas in power and industry supports Nigeria’s decarbonisation goals.
Restoring Investor Confidence
Since 2023, the administration has prioritised rebuilding investor confidence eroded by regulatory delays, contract uncertainty, and fiscal instability. The results are measurable:
• Over $8 billion in new upstream commitments within 18 months.
• Rig count rising from single digits in 2021 to over 60 by 2025.
• Improved asset security with a 90 per cent reduction in pipeline vandalism.
• Seamless regulatory coordination under NUPRC and NNPC Ltd.
Each indicator points to a re-energised upstream sector, increasingly aligned with global standards.
President Tinubu captured this sentiment succinctly: “This major FID announcement by Shell, their second in one year, is a clear validation of our wide-ranging reform efforts and a signal to the world that Nigeria is fully open for business and investment.”
Building the Gas Economy
Nigeria’s future prosperity hinges on one resource above all: gas. With proven reserves exceeding 206 trillion cubic feet and potential reserves of 600 tcf, the country holds Africa’s largest natural-gas base.
The challenge has been converting those reserves into economic value. Projects like HI and Ubeta are closing that gap. When fully operational, they will ensure stable feedgas for NLNG Train 7, which itself expands Nigeria’s LNG capacity by 8 million metric tonnes per year, representing a 35 per cent jump from current production.
That expansion carries ripple effects:
• Strengthened LNG export capacity amid global supply realignment after Russia’s Ukraine crisis.
• Boosted local LPG availability, supporting the government’s clean-cooking initiative.
• Enhanced energy access for households and industries.
• Stimulated small and medium enterprises (SMEs) within gas processing and logistics.
Thus, the gas narrative is both macroeconomic and social, connecting the export dollar to the domestic kitchen flame.
Policy Continuity and Institutional Reform
A key differentiator in the Tinubu administration’s approach has been policy continuity. Unlike previous cycles of reform reversals, the current framework embeds incentives and governance models into legal and institutional instruments.
The Presidential Directives complement the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021, aligning fiscal stability with regulatory predictability. In practice, this means:
• Faster project approvals: Field Development Plans (FDPs) and contract clearances now proceed in months, not years.
• Investor protection: Clear fiscal regimes minimise discretionary interpretations.
• Regulatory cohesion: NUPRC’s data-driven oversight ensures transparency in production, metering, and royalties.
This synergy is fostering a climate where both international and indigenous operators can plan long-term. Already, indigenous companies account for an increasing share of new asset acquisitions and production growth, a trend expected to continue under the “Drill or Drop” and flare-commercialisation initiatives.
Economic and Social Spillovers
Gas projects such as HI and Ubeta deliver multiplier effects across multiple layers of the economy:
• Employment: Thousands of skilled and unskilled jobs during construction and operations.
• Local Content: Increased demand for Nigerian fabrication yards, marine logistics, and engineering services.
• Community Development: Host Community Development Trusts (HCDTs) ensure project communities receive direct benefits for infrastructure, education, and healthcare.
• SME Growth: Expanded opportunities for local entrepreneurs in gas distribution, transportation, and ancillary industries.
Beyond economics, these projects carry strategic importance: reaffirming Nigeria’s role as a regional energy hub and a reliable global supplier amid the global push for energy security.
Aligning Gas Expansion with the Energy Transition
While the global narrative is shifting toward renewables, Nigeria’s energy transition is anchored on gas as a bridge fuel, enabling industrial growth while cutting emissions.
The administration’s policy framework, therefore, seeks a balanced pathway:
Accelerate gas commercialisation to replace high-emission fuels.
Promote carbon-efficient operations through methane-emission controls and flare elimination.
Channel LNG earnings into renewable-energy investments and infrastructure.
The HI and Ubeta projects, alongside the NUPRC–World Bank partnership on upstream decarbonisation, embody this philosophy: building a lower-carbon future without undermining national development.
Global and Domestic Implications
Globally, Shell’s renewed confidence in Nigeria sends a clear signal to markets and investors that the country is back on the energy investment map. It also strengthens Nigeria’s voice within OPEC and international energy dialogues, demonstrating how pragmatic policy reform can coexist with environmental responsibility.
Domestically, the projects are expected to catalyse infrastructure upgrades, including new pipelines and processing facilities that will underpin both export and domestic supply. They will also support foreign-exchange inflows, ease import pressures, and reinforce fiscal resilience.
Furthermore, the success of these FIDs could stimulate new investment decisions in marginal and frontier acreages, including those in Anambra Basin and Benue Trough, diversifying the national energy geography beyond the Niger Delta.
A New Era of Regulatory Synergy
The implementation success of the gas-led reform also reflects enhanced coordination among institutions. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has played a pivotal role by accelerating project approvals, monitoring performance metrics, and ensuring transparent field management. The NNPC Ltd., now a commercially driven entity, complements this through strategic partnerships with investors, leveraging its equity participation to align national and corporate interests.
Together, these agencies have demonstrated how policy coherence, rather than fragmented decision-making, drives results. It is a model increasingly recognised across Africa, inspiring other regulators through platforms such as the African Petroleum Regulators Forum (AFRIPERF).
Sustaining the Momentum
For Nigeria to sustain the gains of this investment cycle, consistency will be key. Analysts identify three priorities for consolidation:
Deepen fiscal stability: Maintain predictable royalty and tax structures to protect investor confidence.
Expand gas infrastructure: Fast-track pipeline networks linking upstream supply to power plants, industries, and households.
Strengthen local capacity: Scale up training and technology transfer to empower indigenous operators.
If implemented, these measures could transform the current momentum into long-term resilience, making Nigeria a preferred global destination for upstream investment.
President Tinubu’s Investment Doctrine
Since taking office, President Tinubu has articulated a consistent doctrine: that Nigeria’s energy sector must become a growth engine, not a fiscal burden. His government’s mantra — “Nigeria is open for business” — is reflected not just in rhetoric but in measurable results.
The $8 billion investment milestone achieved through the three FIDs underscores a broader political economy message: that reform credibility attracts capital faster than incentives alone.
By combining decisive leadership with institutional reform, the administration is gradually reversing years of under-investment and restoring faith in Nigeria’s upstream narrative.
A Blueprint for Confidence
Shell’s $2 billion HI gas project is more than a development milestone; it is a symbol of restored trust between government and investors, policy and performance, and Nigeria and the global market. The project’s ripple effects will be felt for years: enhanced LNG exports, expanded domestic gas use, new jobs, and sustainable revenues. But beyond economics, it signals a cultural shift in Nigeria’s upstream sector, from uncertainty to clarity, from inertia to execution.
As President Tinubu reiterated, “This is a signal to the world that Nigeria is fully open for business and investment.” If the HI Field heralds this new era, then Nigeria’s gas revolution is no longer a promise; it is a process in motion, driven by reform, anchored on trust, and designed for sustainable prosperity.