Compiled by Saidu Abubakar
About 139 million Nigerians (61% of the population) live below the national poverty line, surviving on less than the equivalent of a few dollars a day, while 79% remain near-poor or vulnerable to falling back into poverty, a recent World Bank and IMF reports on Nigeria have shown. Despite macroeconomic stabilization from recent federal reforms, living standards for most citizens remain depressed due to high inflation, poor infrastructure and weak social protection.
Beyond just income, about 63% of the population suffers from multidimensional poverty, meaning they lack basic infrastructure, access to quality healthcare, education and adequate living standards.
The World Bank’s Country Partnership Framework and Nigeria Development Update detail the intersection of infrastructure deficits, policy implementation and poverty reduction efforts.
What the reports actually say
- “Nearly 8 in 10” = Poor + At Risk
The World Bank hasn’t used the exact “8 in 10” phrase in the last two reports found. But the numbers point that way:
- 61% in poverty in 2025: World Bank Country Director Mathew Verghis said “In 2025, we estimate that 139 million Nigerians live in poverty”. That’s about 6 in 10.
- 63% in poverty in 2025: IMF said “63% of Nigeria’s 200 million population remained in poverty”.
- BusinessDay analysis: “proportion of Nigerians living below the national poverty line has risen… to 63 per cent in 2025”. Estimated 143 million in 2026.
When you add those “at risk”/vulnerable but not yet below the line, you get close to “8 in 10”.
The World Bank itself said reforms have “added to already intense pressures on households”.
- Why it’s rising
- Reforms 2023: Fuel subsidy removal + naira float
- Inflation: Peaked at 31.7% average in 2024, petrol up 5x
- Shocks since 2018: COVID, flooding, insecurity, demonetisation. “Additional 42 million people fell into poverty” since 2018/19
- Urban poverty nearly doubled: from 18% to 31.3%.
- Food insecurity
IMF 2026 Article IV: “about 27 million Nigerians faced severe food insecurity”. - World Bank’s warning
“The challenge is clear: How to translate the gains from the reforms into better living standards for all”. They called for protecting the poorest from inflation and boosting jobs.
Context
- 2018: 40.1% below poverty line
- 2024: 54%
- 2025: 61-63%
So the “nearly 8 in 10” figure is likely combining the 63% already poor + those vulnerable to falling into poverty due to high food/transport costs.
The government is now planning to publish a “scorecard” tracking poverty, income and inequality to show if reforms are working.
Based on World Bank + NBS data, poverty in Nigeria is deepest in the North, and a few states stand out as the hardest hit.
States with the highest numbers/poverty rates
1. By number of poor people – 2022 NBS Multidimensional Poverty Index
- Kano – highest number of poor people
- Kaduna
- Katsina
- Sokoto
- Jigawa
- Bauchi
2. By poverty rate %
- Sokoto – as high as 91% incidence of poverty
- Northeast zone – over 80% poverty incidence
- North overall: 65% of all poor people in Nigeria live in the North. In 2018/19 northern geopolitical zones had 46.5% poverty vs 13.5% in southern zones.
3. For comparison – lowest
- Ondo – 27% poverty incidence
- South-South – 32% poverty
Why the North is hit hardest
- Insecurity: Disrupts farming, displaces communities
- Agriculture lagging: More than half of the poor are employed in agriculture, but that sector has lagged
- Rural poverty: Rural poverty rate is 75.5% vs 41.3% urban
- Food inflation: Food is up to 70% of consumption for poorer Nigerians
Key World Bank notes
- Nigeria now has 139 million people in poverty as of 2025 = 61-63%
- Ultra-poor jumped from 14% to 27% between 2019-2023
- World Bank projects poverty will peak at 62% in 2026 before dipping.
SOURCE: Reports