… 4.2% for 2026
The International Monetary Fund has increased Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.9 percent, a 0.5 percentage point rise from its previous projection, citing improved macroeconomic stability, stronger investor confidence, and better oil output.
The announcement was made on Tuesday during the launch of the Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook at the ongoing World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings in Washington D.C.
The IMF also raised its 2026 projection for Nigeria to 4.2 percent, an upward revision of 0.9 percentage point, attributing the optimism to reduced domestic uncertainty and limited exposure to new tariffs imposed by the United States have had little direct influence on Nigeria because of its limited trade links with the country.
According to the Fund, Nigeria’s exchange rate has appreciated, financial conditions have strengthened, and investor sentiment has improved since July.
It added that the country’s fiscal stance remains supportive while the hydrocarbon sector has benefited from higher oil production and improved security around key installations. “These factors together underpin the stronger growth outlook for Nigeria,” the IMF said.
The IMF also revised Nigeria’s 2024 growth estimate to 4.1 percent, up by 0.7 percentage point from its previous forecast, attributing the adjustment to the recent rebasing of the country’s Gross Domestic Product, which now captures a wider range of economic activities, including those in the informal sector.
On the regional outlook, the IMF said Sub-Saharan Africa continues to show resilience supported by reform efforts in key economies such as Nigeria and Ethiopia, though resource-dependent and conflict-affected nations still face major headwinds.
In order to unlock growth potential, it recommended nations to fortify institutions, expand reforms, increase revenue through tax changes, and improve debt transparency.
The Fund also pointed out that while changes in international trade still have an impact on economic performance, new forces like technological investment and fiscal policies are reshaping growth trends.
It added that U.S. tariffs announced earlier this year have had limited impact on global output due to smaller-than-expected shocks and the private sector’s agility in adjusting supply chains.
However, the IMF warned that the outlook remains fragile amid risks including overheating from the AI-driven tech boom, weakness in China’s property sector, insufficient rebuilding of fiscal buffers, and political pressures on central banks that could erode credibility and fuel inflation.
Despite these issues, the IMF said Nigeria’s medium-term prospects remain strong, thanks to ongoing reforms, increased political stability, and favourable oil market circumstances.
Reacting, the Presidency hailed the International Monetary Fund’s upward revision of Nigeria’s economic growth forecasts as a direct result of President Bola Tinubu’s bold reforms in fiscal management, energy, trade, and investment.
In a statement posted on Tuesday via X by the Special Adviser to the President on Public Communications and Media, Daniel Bwala, said the improved outlook was attributed to the competence and foresight of Tinubu’s economic team.
“I must emphasise that these projections are not coincidental; they are the result of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s bold reforms in fiscal management, energy, trade, and investment, backed by the competence and foresight of his economic team.
“Just last week, the World Bank also upgraded Nigeria’s growth outlook to 4.2% in 2025 and 4.4% by 2027, citing renewed investor confidence and improved macroeconomic stability,” Bwala said.
The aide also took a political swipe at the opposition, noting that even their governors are defecting to the ruling All Progressives Congress out of conviction, overwhelmed by the President’s progress.
He said, “I must commiserate with our friends on the other side. Their noise has been drowned by the President’s performance, the kind of silent but solid progress that even their own Governors can no longer ignore.
“One after another, they are crossing over to the APC, not out of compulsion but conviction, because they can see where Nigeria’s leadership, direction, and destiny truly reside.
“President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has turned critics into admirers and doubters into believers, a proof that results remain the loudest campaign.”
SOURCE: thepointng.com