Preamble:
Nigeria holds substantial reserves of oil and natural gas, with estimates reaching 37 billion barrels of oil and over 200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Nevertheless, actual production levels have fallen short of these considerable resources. The primary challenge has shifted from geological limitations to issues of governance and operational efficiency. To fully capitalize on its hydrocarbon assets, Nigeria must move beyond cataloguing reserves toward consistent and reliable production. This transition demands a focus on measurable outcomes rather than rhetoric, ensuring that oil and gas resources directly support national development aims.
The enactment of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) in August 2021 was recognized as a significant policy advancement following two decades of legislative delays. The PIA was designed to rebuild investor confidence, stimulate previously stalled projects, and provide a robust regulatory foundation for the petroleum industry. Despite these intentions, four years after its passage, Nigeria continues to experience declining production rates, institutional fragility, and ongoing legal amendments. The period spanning the implementation and subsequent revision of the PIA, which includes the end of President Buhari’s administration and the start of President Tinubu’s tenure, underscores persistent obstacles in Nigeria’s reform agenda: visionary policy design is frequently met with cautious execution and evolving governance frameworks.
For an extended period, Nigeria’s oil and gas sector has exemplified a paradox of abundant potential accompanied by declining output, optimistic projections that have not been met with sufficient follow-through, and ambitious reforms that have been undermined by weak implementation. While forums often highlight the country’s promise, its performance has still fallen short of expectations. This op-ed emphasizes that Nigeria’s true challenge lies not in articulating aspirations but in bridging the gap between legislation and implementation, policy and execution, and commitments and achievements. The op-ed reviewed Buhari’s legacy and Tinubu’s challenge and shows that without effective action, there is a risk of public fatigue with recurring rhetoric, while tangible results are urgently needed to advance the nation’s energy sector.
Four Years of PIA: Achievements, Challenges, and Insights
The Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), passed in August 2021, was intended to be a transformative legal framework for Nigeria’s oil and gas sector. However, four years later, its promise stays only partially fulfilled due to uneven implementation across two presidential administrations. The conversation has now been complicated by a proposed PIA Amendment Bill, whose implications deserve as much scrutiny as the implementation record itself.
Buhari Era (2021–2023): Institutional Foundations but Cautious Rollout
Buhari’s dual role as President and Minister of Petroleum gave him the leverage to push the PIA through. For this, history will remember him as the leader who finally ended decades of legislative drift. Nigeria at the time had proven reserves of nearly 37 billion barrels of oil and over 200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, yet production was faltering at barely 1.4 million barrels per day, far below the OPEC quota. Investors were walking away, host communities were restless, and Nigeria’s fiscal dependence on oil revenue was increasingly precarious. Passing the law was therefore seen as an urgent intervention to stabilize a sinking ship.
But passing the law was easier than embedding it. Implementation lagged almost at once. NNPC Limited was incorporated, but its commercial independence was untested, and its board was still heavily influenced by the government. The new regulators—NUPRC and NMDPRA—were created, yet quickly fell into turf disputes. Host Community Trusts were announced, but their rollout was delayed, leaving locals sceptical that real benefits would trickle down. Even Buhari’s marginal fields bid round of 2020, touted as a new opportunity for Indigenous players, remained bogged down in disputes and financing challenges. Buhari’s gift was passage; his weakness was consolidation. He gave Nigeria a law, but not the machinery or urgency to make it work.
Tinubu’s Challenge: Amendments Before Maturity
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu inherited this unfinished story. From the outset, his instincts were different. He came in not as a finisher of Buhari’s reforms but as a reformer in his own right, willing to reopen the conversation and move quickly toward amendments.
Within two years of his presidency, debates over PIA changes dominated headlines. Most controversial is the proposal to grant NUPRC commercial roles; a move that risks reviving conflicts of interest the PIA had painstakingly tried to eliminate. By design, regulators were to regulate, NNPC Limited was to run commercially, and policymakers were to set direction. Blurring these lines undermines the clarity the PIA promised.
Tinubu’s defenders argue that Nigeria cannot remain static. With global competition for capital fierce, Guyana, Namibia, and Brazil rising fast, and with the energy transition looming, they insist Nigeria must adjust fiscal and governance terms rapidly to stay relevant. His executive orders on fiscal incentives for gas and deepwater oil projects reflect this urgency. Critics counter that constant tinkering destroys investor confidence. Investors who had celebrated the end of “legislative uncertainty” in 2021 now see Nigeria recycling uncertainty under a new name. For them, stability, not perpetual adjustment, is the scarce commodity.
The contrast is stark. Buhari gave Nigeria a law but left it skeletal. Tinubu is eager to amend the law before it has matured. In both cases, the central promise of stability and predictability is undermined. Buhari gave Nigeria a law; Tinubu is giving it amendments. But what investors crave is not legislation for its own sake; it is stability and predictability.
Emerging Amendments: Game Changers or Backsliding?
Two proposals in the PIA Amendment Bill stand out for their potential to reshape the sector’s governance and commercial balance:
- A 60% federation participation right in petroleum assets, to be managed by the Commission. While this could strengthen national control, it risks blurring the regulatory–commercial divide that the PIA originally looked to clarify.
- Acquisition of the Ministry of Petroleum Incorporated’s (MoPI) shares in NNPC Limited by the Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MoFI). This would combine ownership under MoFI, with implications for revenue flows, corporate governance, and the operational independence of NNPC Limited.
These changes could either enhance state value capture or undermine investor confidence, depending on clarity, transparency, and execution gaps. The gaps that exist include unresolved overlaps between NUPRC and NMDPRA functions, limited enforcement of host community development trust provisions, inconsistent application of fiscal incentives, and undermining investor confidence. Of course, delays in gazetting critical regulations for midstream and downstream. The leadership paradox facing Nigeria is a significant concern given the country’s substantial resource endowment. With proven reserves of 36.9 billion barrels of oil and more than 209 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, Nigeria has considerable investment potential. However, average production stays at 1.4 million barrels per day, falling short of its OPEC allocation of 1.8–2.0 million barrels.
This shortfall stems from three primary challenges. The first is the fiscal–commercial gap: despite reform efforts, Nigeria’s fiscal terms are still less attractive compared to other emerging markets and regulated domestic gas pricing continues to deter large-scale investment. The second is the governance gap: overlapping regulations, political interference, and an underdeveloped midstream sector undermine policy predictability and coherence. Although aspirations to become a regional gas hub exist, Nigeria currently lacks the necessary infrastructure and unified policy framework. The third is the security gap, where persistent crude theft and pipeline vandalism significantly increase operational costs and result in annual losses amounting to billions of dollars. Despite enhanced military presence and surveillance contracts, insecurity persists throughout the Niger Delta region. Collectively, these issues hinder Nigeria from fully realizing its resource potential.
Nigeria’s petroleum narrative is characterized by abundant resources juxtaposed with fragile governance. Although the PIA was intended to transform this landscape, four years into its implementation, progress remains incomplete. While former President Buhari eased the passage of the PIA without ensuring consolidation, President Tinubu’s amendments have occurred before the law could mature, highlighting the perennial challenge of ambitious legislation paired with weak execution. The current imperative is to translate the PIA from statutory text into an effective governance framework that delivers production growth, fiscal stability, and community trust. The PIA’s potential is intact, but this can only be realized through disciplined governance rather than continual legislative changes. Otherwise, each anniversary may mark missed opportunities rather than noteworthy achievements. Whereas Buhari provided a legislative foundation and Tinubu has spearheaded amendments, stakeholders and investors primarily seek stability and predictability over perpetual legal adjustments.
At this critical juncture, Nigeria faces a choice: either continue to acknowledge its untapped reserves while production declines or proactively convert its potential into performance. The reality is clear: proven reserves alone cannot drive economic growth; only active production can. By adhering to consistent policies, securing assets, and fostering an investment-friendly environment, Nigeria can reestablish itself as a trusted energy producer. It is incumbent upon the country to shift from promises to measurable outcomes so that progress benefits both current and future generations.
The leadership paradox is especially troubling because Nigeria is abundantly endowed. With 36.9 billion barrels of oil and over 209 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, the country should be a magnet for investment. Yet production hovers stubbornly at 1.4 million barrels per day, well below its OPEC allocation of 1.8–2.0 million. The reasons are clear. First is the fiscal–commercial gap. Even with reforms, Nigeria’s fiscal terms remain less attractive than emerging frontiers. Gas, hailed as the transition fuel, suffers from regulated domestic pricing that makes large-scale investment unattractive. Second is the governance gap. Regulatory overlaps, political interference, and weak midstream frameworks continue to erode predictability. Nigeria talks about being a gas hub, but it lacks the infrastructure and coherent policy to make it real. Third is the security gap. Crude theft and pipeline vandalism remain structural costs of doing business. Billions of dollars are lost annually.
Despite military interventions and surveillance contracts, insecurity along the Niger Delta corridor persists. Together, these gaps explain why Nigeria’s vast reserves remain potential, not promise. If Nigeria is to reclaim the PIA’s promise, three priorities are clear.
• First, combine, don’t dilute. The PIA must be allowed to mature. Regulators must remain impartial referees, not commercial players. NNPC Limited must prove it can run commercially, independent of state capture.
• Second, rebuild investor confidence. Fiscal stability is essential. Transparent bid rounds must be delivered. Incentives for gas development must be competitive enough to unlock non-associated gas reserves for both domestic use and export.
• Third, secure production sustainably. Militarization alone cannot end crude theft. Host communities must see tangible benefits. Trust Funds must be implemented transparently, so that locals feel genuine ownership of the industry.
The Way Forward for Nigeria:
Nigeria’s oil and gas governance cannot afford another four years of mixed signals. Full effectiveness requires:
- Strict regulatory clarity — roles and responsibilities must be enforced without ambiguity.
- Transparent compliance monitoring — independent audits of PIA provisions.
- Alignment of fiscal policy with the Act’s intent — no ad hoc reversals or contradictory policies.
- Sustained stakeholder engagement — so reforms evolve with industry realities.
The PIA is a sound law, but a sound law poorly implemented, or prematurely restructured without clarity, is a missed opportunity. Nigeria cannot afford to miss this one twice.
Final Remarks and Reflection
At the conclusion of the PENGASSAN Energy and Labor Summit (PEALS) held on August 22, 2025, colleagues were informed that Nigeria is at an important point in its development. Despite decades of recognizing our substantial oil and gas reserves, the persistent challenge is that production levels are steadily diminishing. As stated, it is essential to understand that reserves alone do not drive economic growth; only actively produced barrels have such potential. Advancing policy coherence, safeguarding our assets, and fostering suitable investment are imperative if Nigeria is to move beyond being a country defined by latent potential rather than tangible achievement. Several contributors highlighted policy and legal concerns.
Some noted that forecasting has become commonplace in Nigeria, often resulting in ambitious projections without effective implementation mechanisms. They questioned whether this Summit would transcend mere rhetoric and deliver substantive action. One observer referenced fiscal statutes such as the Petroleum Profits Tax Act and CITA, lamenting the lack of explicit provisions ensuring that revenues benefit citizens directly. This led to a critical inquiry: Does Nigeria’s legislative framework primarily serve political interests over those of the populace?
Issues related to governance were also prominently discussed. Persistent obstacles, including attracting investment, harmonizing policy, ensuring regulatory consistency, setting up fair incentives, and sustaining community approval, remain unresolved. A professional participant remarked that Nigeria is often described as a nation of remarkable potential yet habitual underperformance. This sentiment was echoed in further analysis of legal reforms like the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), where it was suggested that reform efforts are hindered when drafters exceed their mandates or politicians manipulate changes to combine power. The intent behind the PIA—to limit the extensive powers vested in the Minister under the Petroleum Act of 1969—was repeatedly compromised, revealing a persistent divergence between legislative reform and principled governance.
Collectively, these insights converge on an important reality: Nigeria can no longer rely on abstract promises or rhetorical ambition. It is critical to bridge the gap between statutory intent and actual outcomes, between forecasts and realized aims, and between having resources and achieving productive output. Only through deliberate action can we ensure meaningful advancement for current and future generations.
Here is my final take: Nigeria’s petroleum history remains a paradox: great wealth beneath the soil, fragile governance above it. The PIA was meant to change that narrative. Four years on, its story is unfinished. Buhari’s chapter was one of passage without consolidation. Tinubu’s chapter so far is one of amendment without patience. Both expose Nigeria’s chronic struggle: bold laws, but weak delivery. The challenge now is to turn the PIA from a law on paper into a living framework that delivers production growth, fiscal stability, and community trust. The PIA’s promise is still alive, but only if Nigeria resists the temptation to rewrite too quickly and instead governs with discipline. Otherwise, anniversaries will remain occasions of regret rather than milestones of progress.
OMOWUMI O. ILEDARE, PhD, Sr.
Fellow USAEE, Fellow NIPetE, Fellow
EI, Professor Emeritus, Louisiana
State University, Baton Rouge, USA
& Executive Director, Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, Abuja, Nigeria