Global oil demand growth through 2050 is expected to be driven largely by light and middle distillates, with jet fuel, LPG, diesel and other products accounting for the bulk of the projected increase, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has said.
OPEC disclosed this in a public notice posted on its official X handle on Sunday as part of its long-term outlook for the global oil market.
The projection indicates that while demand for oil products will continue to expand over the period, the growth will not be evenly distributed across product categories, with heavier products expected to record only modest increases as consumers and industries increasingly shift towards substitute fuels and technologies.
According to OPEC, the strongest growth among light products is expected to come from ethane/LPG, with demand projected to rise by 3.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2050.
Naphtha is expected to record the second-largest increase in the light-products segment, growing by 3.2 mb/d, while gasoline demand is projected to increase by 2.4 mb/d over the same period.
The organisation said middle distillates would also constitute a major source of additional oil demand, led by jet fuel and kerosene, whose combined demand is expected to increase by 4.2 mb/d by 2050.
Gasoil and diesel are projected to an additional 3.8 mb/d in demand during the period.
The forecast is significant for oil-producing countries such as Nigeria, where crude oil remains the dominant source of export earnings and government revenue, while the country is also seeking to expand its refining capacity and reduce dependence on imported petroleum products.
The expected strength of demand for diesel, jet fuel, LPG and petrochemical feedstocks could reinforce the economic case for investments across Nigeria’s upstream, refining, gas processing and petrochemical sectors.
OPEC’s projection, however, also points to a changing structure of oil consumption rather than an across-the-board expansion in demand for every petroleum product.
The organisation said the increase in demand for heavy products would be modest, attributing this largely to the “increasing rate of substitution” as alternative energy sources and technologies gain ground.
The distinction between product categories is important for oil-producing economies because future oil-market opportunities are increasingly tied not only to crude production volumes but also to the types of refined products and feedstocks demanded by consumers and industries.
For Nigeria, the development comes as the country seeks to raise crude oil production, attract fresh upstream investment and expand domestic refining.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, with a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, has already altered the country’s petroleum-products landscape, while the Federal Government and private operators continue to pursue the rehabilitation and development of additional refining capacity.
The country’s aviation, transport, industrial and residential sectors could also benefit from greater domestic availability of products such as aviation fuel, diesel and LPG if refining and gas-processing investments translate into sustained local supply.
OPEC’s latest projection also comes against the backdrop of continuing debate over the long-term trajectory of global oil demand as governments pursue energy-transition policies and investments in electric vehicles, renewables and other alternatives.
SOURCE: Independent