Nigeria is set to marking one of the fastest downstream expansions globally as crude oil output remained above its OPEC+ quota of 1.50 mb/d for the second consecutive month, averaging 1.50 mb/d in July (June: 1.50 mb/d), underpinned by improved security measures and a gradual recovery in sector investments.
This modest outperformance, analysts said, reflects the combined impact of improved security conditions in the Niger Delta and a gradual rebound in upstream investment, supported by the transfer of divested assets from international oil companies to indigenous operators.
According to OPEC’s August Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), Nigeria’s crude oil output of 1.50 mb/d for the second consecutive month, averaging 1.50 mb/d in July (June: 1.50 mb/d), according to OPEC’s August Monthly Oil reflects the combined impact of improved security conditions in the Niger Delta and a gradual rebound in upstream investment, supported by the transfer of divested assets from international oil companies to indigenous operators
The report noted that indigenous players have increasingly taken the lead in deploying capital and accelerating field development, which has helped sustain production levels despite lingering operational and infrastructural challenges.
Crude oil output in Nigeria increased to 1507 BBL/D/1K in July from 1505 BBL/D/1K in June of 2025.
Crude oil production in Nigeria averaged 1819.81 BBL/D/1K from 1973 until 2025, reaching an all-time high of 2475.00 BBL/D/1K in November of 2005 and a record low of 675.00 BBL/ D/1K in February of 1983.
Nigeria’s oil production exceeded 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, NUPRC
Gbenga Komolafe, Commission Chief Executive of the NUPRC, who disclosed this in Lagos, said: “The Commission is pursuing the Project 1 MMBOPD Incremental initiative with modest gains recorded owing to the multi-stakeholder collaborative approach adopted. We are pleased to report that we achieved a peak production of 1.8 MMBOPD last month, with an average production rate of 1.78 MMBOPD.”
Festus Osifo, the President of both the Petroleum & Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) and the Trade Union Congress (TUC), told Daily Independent, that investors in the oil & gas sector in the country value predictability as much as profitability.
He pointed to the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) as a turning point for value predictability as much as profitability, saying it provides a legal framework for competitiveness.
Comrade Osifo, however, said: “Under its provisions, NNPC is being run as a commercially focused entity, better positioned to restructure joint ventures, monetise dormant assets, and expand critical infrastructure like refineries, pipelines, and gas hubs”.
Cordros Securities Researchers in their Weekly Economic and Market Report, stated that average crude production in H1-25 stood at 1.47 mb/d, underscoring the sector’s gradual but fragile recovery momentum.
According to the researchers, ,indigenous players have increasingly taken the lead in deploying capital and accelerating field development, which has helped sustain production levels despite lingering operational and infrastructural challenges.
“Overall, we expect Nigeria’s crude oil production to remain marginally above the OPEC+ quota through year-end, underpinned by improved security measures and a gradual recovery in sector investments. However, lingering vulnerabilities around pipeline security and operational bottlenecks remain key downside risks that could cap the sustainability of recent gains”.
Mr. Bayo Ojulari, Group Chief Executive Officer of Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, urged Nigeria and other African nations to chart their own course in the global energy transition.
He emphasised the need to embrace technology, foster cross-border alliances, and invest in human capital.
He said: “We must recognise the future of energy is neither linear nor pre-determined; it is shaped by the decisions we make, how we intentionally engage, strategically invest, and boldly embrace innovations. Energy transition must not be imposed; it must be contextualised, just, and negotiated. Many of our people are yet to attain basic energy access.
“Our approach must be balanced and anchored on energy justice. We must deepen alliances across regional lines, foster robust and transparent dialogue among government, industry players, financiers, multilateral institutions, technology leaders, civil society, and our youths. Innovation must be embraced not as buzz words but as strategic enablers to achieve net-zero targets without compromising energy access.
An executive Director of a new generation bank told Daily Independent that the medium-term growth – led by landmark divested assets from international oil companies to indigenous operators in Nigeria, signals a turning point for the country’s energy sovereignty and investment attractiveness.
The financial expert noted that at the forefront of Nigeria’s refining expansion is the 650,000-bpd Dangote Refinery, which began operations in 2024 and is already reshaping the nation’s fuel trade dynamics.
The 200,000-bpd Akwa Ibom Refinery, the financial expert said, is a pointer to Nigeria’s enabling incremental, but scalable capacity builds in oil & gas markets where infrastructure and financing hurdles persist.
Nigeria’s medium-term refining expansion reflects both a technical development and strategic inflection point, of which, If Nigeria seizes this momentum, it can move beyond being a raw crude exporter to becoming a competitive, resilient and integrated energy producer in the long run”, the expert said
The Commission Chief Executive (CCE) of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Engr. Gbenga Komolafe said globally, the energy sector is undergoing seismic shifts.
He noted that countries are grappling with the implications of climate change, investment realignments, and technological disruption.
“For Nigeria, the challenge is to harness its vast hydrocarbon resources while strategically preparing for a cleaner energy future”.
“This is not a passing trend,” Komolafe warned. “It signals where capital, technology, and innovation are heading.”
He cautioned against reading the numbers as a death sentence for oil and gas. Both OPEC and the U.S. Energy Information Administration still project that fossil fuels will remain indispensable for decades, especially in fast-growing regions like Africa and Asia. The balance, therefore, lies in sustaining current energy security while actively investing in the low-carbon economy of tomorrow.
According to BloombergNEF, in 2023, low-carbon energy investment surpassed fossil fuel spending for the first time, reaching $1.7 trillion, and by 2024, that figure had surged to $2.1 trillion.
“Nigeria sits on proven reserves of 37.28 billion barrels of crude oil and 210.54 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. The sector accounts for about 90% of export earnings and nearly 70% of government revenue”.
A financial expert, who craves anonymity, told Daily Independent, that despite holding one of the largest proven reserves in Africa, Nigeria has consistently underperformed in actual production, often failing to meet OPEC quotas. Theft, vandalism, aging infrastructure, and underinvestment have kept daily outputs below potential.
“Nigeria has to prove it can guarantee both returns and security. Without that, capital will continue to flow to more stable jurisdictions,” the expert said.
SOURCE: independent.ng