Nigeria is spending billions on imported petrol even as its largest refinery operates at full capacity and prepares to double in size. The figures raise a broader question: is Nigeria’s refining revolution moving fast enough?
By Ese Ufuoma
Nigeria has spent years trying to escape a problem that has become almost too familiar to explain. A country that produces crude oil has repeatedly had to import the fuel it needs to power its cars, businesses and industries. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery was expected to change that, although in many ways, it has. But the latest trade figures have brought the old question back. Nigeria spent N952.15 billion on petrol imports in the second quarter of 2026, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That was a staggering 989.4 per cent increase from the N87.40 billion recorded in the first quarter. The figure is striking because the Dangote refinery operates at a much larger scale, and Nigeria’s local refining industry shows clear signs of growth.
It also comes just days after Dangote announced plans to raise about N2.15 trillion through an IPO while preparing to spend another $14.3 billion to double the refinery’s capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day. The country is building more refining capacity than ever before, yet it is still spending hundreds of billions of naira bringing petrol into the country. In the first three months of 2026, Nigeria spent just N87.40 billion importing petrol. By the second quarter, the figure had risen to N952.15 billion. That is an increase of about N865 billion in just three months. At first glance, the numbers tell a simple story: Nigeria still depends heavily on imported petrol. But the wider picture is more complicated.
The country is not importing refined products at the same scale it did before the Dangote refinery came on stream. According to the US Energy Information Administration, Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum-product imports fell to less than 130,000 barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, compared with almost 400,000 barrels per day in 2023. At the same time, domestic shipments of petroleum products rose sharply, reaching about 211,000 barrels per day in Q2. Dangote Refinery announced a $14.3 billion expansion programme that would double its processing capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2029. The announcement came alongside the signing of documents for what is expected to be one of Africa’s biggest IPOs. One of the easiest mistakes to make when discussing Nigeria’s fuel imports is to assume that refinery capacity automatically equals fuel availability.
The country may have millions of barrels of crude underground, but getting enough crude to local refineries at the right time and at commercially workable prices remains an important part of the refining challenge. This is one reason the government’s domestic crude supply policy has become so important. If Nigeria wants to reduce petrol imports permanently, local refineries must have consistent access to crude. Without that, even a refinery with enormous processing capacity can find itself unable to operate at the level the country expects. There is also a bigger economic issue behind the import bill. Petrol imports require foreign exchange.
For a country that has spent years trying to stabilise the naira and improve dollar liquidity, every major import bill matters. When Nigeria imports refined petrol, money leaves the country to pay for a product that could potentially be produced domestically. The ambition is to produce the crude, refine it locally, supply the domestic market and export the surplus. The Dangote refinery is at the centre of that change. Its expansion to 1.4 million barrels per day could push Nigeria much closer to becoming a major refining hub. But capacity alone will not solve the problem. Nigeria will have to ensure that its refineries have crude; it will need better infrastructure and a stable downstream market, and it will need policies that allow local refiners to compete without creating new problems for consumers.