By Danlami Nasir Isah
With a May 2027 deadline and bespoke fiscal incentives in place, Shell’s long-delayed Bonga South West Aparo project has become a referendum on policy stability, investor confidence and Nigeria’s ability to compete for scarce global upstream capital.
When President Bola Tinubu told Shell’s global chief executive, Wael Sawan, that Bonga South West Aparo (BSWA) must reach Final Investment Decision (FID) before May 2027, it was not merely a diplomatic exchange at the Presidential Villa. It was a political deadline, a fiscal gamble, and arguably the clearest test yet of whether Nigeria’s oil and gas reforms can finally unlock large-scale deepwater capital after more than a decade of paralysis.
At an estimated $20 billion, BSWA is no ordinary upstream project. If sanctioned, it would rank among the largest offshore energy investments globally and instantly become Nigeria’s most consequential upstream approval since the early 2010s. For Tinubu’s administration, it is also shaping up as a defining legacy project, one that could either validate his reform agenda or expose its limits.
From retreat to “sea change”
Shell’s renewed enthusiasm is itself significant. Just a few years ago, the supermajor was actively pulling back from Nigeria, divesting onshore assets and reassessing capital exposure amid insecurity, regulatory uncertainty and uncompetitive fiscal terms. That retreat was mirrored by other international oil companies, leaving Nigeria’s deepwater potential largely stranded while capital flowed to Guyana, Brazil and the US Gulf.
That context gives weight to Sawan’s characterisation of Shell’s current posture as a “sea change”. Speaking directly to Tinubu, the Shell CEO credited the president’s “leadership and vision” for restoring investor confidence and creating a climate that now justifies renewed long-term commitments.
“We have really been in a space where we are very keen to invest in Nigeria,” Sawan said. “But I would say this has not always been the case. Your leadership and your vision have created an investment climate over the last few years that… propelled us to invest, particularly as we compare to other investments around the world.”
That comparison matters. Shell is not short of options. Capital is increasingly scarce, disciplined and fiercely competitive. Nigeria is no longer competing with only its African peers; it is competing with some of the lowest-cost, fastest-cycle petroleum provinces on the planet.
The economics of confidence
Sawan’s message was blunt: stability now carries a premium.
“In today’s environment, stability has a premium for corporates,” he told Tinubu. “We are not investing for one administration, or five or ten years. We want to invest for 20, 30, 40 years, and in the case of Nigeria, for many, many decades.”
That long-term horizon explains why BSWA is being positioned as more than a single asset. Shell already has $5 billion committed to Bonga North, $2 billion to the HI gas project, and additional gas volumes feeding Nigeria LNG (NLNG). The company also deepened its exposure to OML 118 (the Bonga block) by acquiring interests sold by TotalEnergies, a move Sawan said reflected Shell’s belief that “this is not enough” and that Nigeria still has more to offer.
BSWA, however, is the centrepiece. The project could involve up to $20 billion in foreign direct investment, split roughly between capital expenditure and long-term operating spend, and an unusually large and sustained FX inflow for an economy under constant currency pressure.
Tinubu’s calibrated incentives
The linchpin of the renewed momentum is Tinubu’s approval of targeted, investment-linked fiscal incentives, now formally gazetted within Nigeria’s existing legal framework. The president has been deliberate in how these incentives are framed, not as blanket concessions, but as ring-fenced tools tied to new capital, incremental production, local content delivery and in-country value addition.
“These incentives are not blanket concessions,” Tinubu stressed. “They are ring-fenced and investment-linked, focused on new capital and incremental production.”
Politically, that distinction is critical. Nigeria’s petroleum sector has long been dogged by public suspicion that incentives equal giveaways. Tinubu is betting that transparency, specificity and linkage to measurable outcomes can bridge the credibility gap between investor needs and public accountability.
The president also directed his Special Adviser on Energy, Olu Arowolo-Verheijen, to fast-track the gazetting process, signalling urgency as well as coordination across government.
Why BSWA matters beyond barrels
If sanctioned, BSWA’s impact would extend far beyond crude output.
First, production resilience. Nigeria’s output has struggled to remain above 1.3 million barrels per day, weighed down by theft and vandalism in onshore and shallow-water assets. Deepwater production offers scale, stability and lower exposure to those risks.
Second, foreign exchange and fiscal relief. A multi-year, $20bn investment cycle would support reserves, improve FX liquidity and generate sustained government revenues over the project’s life.
Third, industrial capability. Tinubu has emphasised BSWA’s potential to deepen Nigerian participation in offshore engineering, fabrication, logistics and energy services, areas where deepwater projects can anchor durable industrial ecosystems rather than one-off rents.
Finally, signalling power. Perhaps most importantly, BSWA would serve as a benchmark transaction. If Shell can reach FID under Nigeria’s current fiscal and regulatory architecture, it will lower the psychological and commercial barrier for other stalled deepwater projects.
A narrowing window
Time, however, is the constraint. With Tinubu’s first term ending on 28 May 2027, the window to move from pre-FEED to FEED and into FID is tight. Contractors are already being assessed for a 150,000-barrel-per-day FPSO, and Shell says it will “fast-track” schedules where possible. But deepwater projects are unforgiving of slippage.
Failure to meet the deadline would not just delay one project; it would raise uncomfortable questions about Nigeria’s ability to execute even when policy intent is aligned.
The verdict Nigeria needs
For President Tinubu, Bonga South West has become far more than Shell’s project. Rather, it is a test case for Nigeria’s reform narrative, a measure of whether disciplined incentives, regulatory certainty and professional institutions can translate into real capital commitments in a fiercely competitive global market.
For Shell, meanwhile, the project represents a wager on stability, policy continuity and long-term partnership. For Nigeria as a whole, it is a rare opportunity to finally convert deepwater potential into a sanctioned reality.
If Bonga South West reaches final investment decision on schedule, it will mark a decisive break from years of stalled ambition. If not, it will reinforce a familiar and costly narrative: that Nigeria can articulate reform but struggles to close. The stakes, therefore, could hardly be higher.
Ultimately, whether Bonga South West reaches FID by 2027 will say more about Nigeria’s investment credibility than any policy speech or reform document. For Tinubu, it is a narrow but defining window to prove that Nigeria can still close megadeals in an unforgiving global energy market. For investors, it will answer a simpler question: has Nigeria truly turned the corner, or is deepwater still a promise waiting to be fulfilled?